Ice to fire: Freezing to 90s this week in Minnesota
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Don't like our weather? Just wait 15 minutes. From freezing up north this morning to 90s by Friday?
Welcome to Minnesota.
Several northern Minnesota locations awoke to temperatures in the 20s this morning.
......Northeastern Minnesota.......
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BABM5: Babbitt................: DH0702/ 63 / 30 / 0.00
BRMM5: Brimson................: DHM / M / 28 / 0.00
COKM5: Cook...................: DH0600/ 64 / 38 / 0.00
COTM5: Cotton.................: DH0600/ 67 / 29 / 0.00
DLHM5: Duluth NWS.............: DH0700/ 66 / 37 / 0.00
EMBM5: Embarrass..............: DH0600/ 62 / 28 / 0.00
LEIM5: Orr 3E.................: DH0600/ 63 / 29 / 0.00
Blissful Wednesday
Today is about as good as it gets in Minnesota. Sunshine and highs in the upper 70s. This may be the last day with dew points in the comfortable lower 40s in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota for a while, maybe even several weeks. Get out there and sample our fine weather product. Long outdoor lunch anyone?
Summer heat builds to the west today.
Warm front tonight
Our weather pattern is dominated by a developing warm front the next 48 hours. Watch as the front pushes slowly north. The front triggers scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight.
The atmospheric physics of warm fronts creates unstable air at night as low level jet streams push warmer, more humid air at ground level, while air cools aloft. We all know warm air likes to rise. That's why warm fronts get active on summer nights in the Midwest.
NOAA models crank out a 62 percent chance of thunder overnight from Minneapolis-St. Paul to Red Wing. That's the leading edge of Friday's inbound heat wave.
Midnight thunder?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 4 km resolution model depicts scattered thundershowers developing overnight tonight.
NOAA's North American Mesoscale Forecast System model is the most aggressive with the inbound heat wave. This may be a few degrees too warm for Saturday in the metro, but it gives a good overview of the heat pulsing this way.
I expect temperatures of 100 degrees around Madison, Minn., and the Buffalo Ridge towns like Canby, Minn., Friday afternoon.
The extended forecasts still look summery, but there is significant disagreement about temperatures. The overnight European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts runs favor hotter southerly breezes over Minnesota into next week.
Another heat spike late next week?
Once a hot air dome gets established across the central United States. it can be hard to displace in summer.
I'm a little wary of some of the early heat trends, and watching to see if this becomes "a thing" this summer. I still think we'll see an above average number of 90-plus degree days this summer. Average for the Twin Cities is 13 days. I'm betting on the high side this year.
The upper air pattern suggests another possible heat spike late next week as a ridge of high pressure build aloft over the central U.S.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center locks on to the trend.
Bottom line? This week's heat wave may not be the last we see in June.
Stay tuned.