Instant summer today, active pattern next 2 weeks?

Timing is everything in life, and in weather.

Summer rainfall in the Midwest is like a game of darts or roulette. Feast or famine. Hit or miss. Strikes and gutters?

Last night's rainfall was all or nothing. Downpours dumped some 2" to 3"+ rainfall totals west of the metro around Cokato. Many north and northwest metro suburbs picked up close to an inch. Meanwhile in most of the metro and MSP Airport, a paltry trace of rainfall last night.

Target Field downpours were not enough to save the Twins from another check mark in the loss column. Lightning strikes finally retreated far enough north for the Beyoncé tribe to get the show in at TCF Bank Stadium.

You get the picture. All weather is local. With summer thunderstorms, hyper-local.

Summer warmth is here early this year. Your local bank thermometer makes a run for the 80s this afternoon. Scattered storms rumble across northern Minnesota today, and another wave of thunderstorms rolls in from the south again overnight.

Soaking rains west

The storm total rainfall alogorithim from NOAA's NWS Doppler painted some 2" to 3"+ rainfall totals (and large hail) near Cokato last night. 1" or so hit many northwest suburbs while most of the metro stayed relatively dry as storms tracked through the northwest metro.

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

910 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

...Rainfall Reports From Past 24 Hours...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

French Lake 3.62 in

1 NNE Hutchinson 3.26 in

4 NNE Cokato 2.68 in

1 NW Hutchinson 2.58 in

Hutchinson AP 2.14 in

Hutchinson 1 SSE 2.13 in

Dassel 3 ESE 2.08 in

2 ENE St. Michael 2.07 in

St. Francis 2.00 in

Instant summer

Highs push well into the 80s today across the Upper Midwest. That's average for mid-July. The average high for MSP today? 72 degrees.

Dry front

A direr air mass eases in from the north today, nudging sticky higher dew point air south into Iowa and far southeast Minnesota. The contrast in air masses across Minnesota today is high. You'll notice the dew points easing off this afternoon from the Twin Cities north and west.

Next low pressure wave Wednesday

Low pressure drives our next tropical warm front north overnight. Look for a wave of T-Storms moving north from Iowa into southern Minnesota late tonight. Scattered storms work north through Minnesota Wednesday as the warm front pushes northward.

The Twin Cities NWS does a nice job of laying out the potential for more soaking rains, and a few bumpy storms this week.

The European model lays out the timing on rainfall the next few days. Today, Thursday, Sunday and part of Memorial Day look like the sunniest driest days. Expect hit or miss T-Storms in between. How's your Celsius to Fahrenheit conversion these days?

Long range: Warm with occasional thunder

Overall the next two weeks look more like July than late May into June on the maps. An upper level trough in the west and warm high pressure ridge in the east means a summery thundery pattern for Minnesota. Cue the mosquitoes.

Grand Forks microburst causes localized damage

Microbursts are highly localized damaging wind events from individual thunderstorm cells. Sunday's night's microburst in Grand Forks tore up part of town with estimated 75 mph winds. Here's more from the Grand Forks Herald.

"They're such a small-scale feature. In time, they might not last very long. It's conceivable that you could have one of these microbursts that happens between your radar scans," Voelker explained. "Looking at it, even in hindsight, I really didn't see anything that would make me want to issue a severe thunderstorm warning."

The weather that tore through Grand Forks last night uprooted trees, damaged cars and homes and left as many as 5,200 residents without power. Residents woke up to bent traffic signals, shingles ripped off sheds and, for some, the realization that their homes were unaffected.

"I'm just glad I was able to finish Game of Thrones," said Michael Potter, whose home on 22nd Avenue South was unaffected.

Grand Forks Police said Monday morning they had received no reports of injuries. Residents were asked to avoid storm damaged areas if they can, allowing allow crews to repair services and clear debris.

Voelker explained that Sunday night's microburst wasn't a tornado. The microburst, he said, had winds that blew in a straight line and formed on the leading edge of the storm, unlike tornadoes, which have cyclone-style winds and usually occur in a separate part of a storm system. Though there are many reasons why a microburst might occur, Voelker said one example is updrafts that keep rain in storm clouds suddenly giving way to a large release of rain. That rain can bring down heavy, sudden winds like the kinds seen Sunday evening.