May monsoon: Tropical thundershowers this week
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New week, new weather.
A major pattern change features a more tropical air mass with periods of showers and thunderstorms this week. We're entering the wet season in Minnesota now.
The next six weeks are typically the wettest of the year. Rainfall averages about 1 inch a week for the next two months, meaning it won't be a shock to see some 6- to 8-inch rainfall totals in the next two months in your back yard.
In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model cranks out some 2 to 3-inches-plus rainfall totals over the next two weeks. Locally heavier totals are possible.
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It all gets started today, as a moisture laden air mass blows into Minnesota. The first indication? You'll feel the dew points rising from the desert dry 30s during our glorious weekend into the 50s to near the sticky 60 degree mark today.
Rain and thunder
Last week I talked about the change to a wetter pattern this week. It's here.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms lighting up the Doppler today. Most of the storms will be garden variety, but one or two could approach borderline severe limits late this afternoon and evening with hail and gusty winds.
Local downpours
Keep the umbrella handy this week. Turn your lawn sprinklers off. Your turn and trees will get some much needed rainfall this week. Rainfall totals could easily reach 1 to 3 inches-plus by Saturday across parts of Minnesota.
NOAA's North American Mesoscale Forecast System 4 km resolution model paints waves of thundershowers this afternoon followed by a quiet and sunny Tuesday. The next rain wave arrives early Wednesday morning from the south.
Here's the rainfall output from NOAA's NAM 4 km model. Some aggressive multi-inch totals this week close to home?
NOAA's seven-day rainfall output agrees with the notion of a (very?) wet week ahead. Several inches of rain look likely across a good chunk of Minnesota and the Midwest.
To the maps. Low pressure wave No. 1 arrives today. We come up for air tomorrow on a beautiful summery Tuesday as highs push 80 degrees with plenty of sunshine.
Low No.2 drives some nocturnal thunderstorms north into Minnesota in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks wet, several hours of rain possible.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model agrees with the wet trend. The wettest days this week look like today and Wednesday, with scattered rain and a few strong storms possible Thursday and Friday. I've overlaid my (Fahrenheit) forecast numbers on the image below.
Decent Memorial Day weekend?
The latest trends for Memorial Day weekend look better. Saturday still features scattered storms chances. Sunday and Memorial Day are trending sunnier and drier with highs around 80 degrees. A mostly sunny and warm holiday weekend in Minnesota? Our blissful spring weather winning streak may continue.
