Taste of summer: Smoky skies, 80s by Friday

Instant summer

Roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of...May?

A summery air mass sweeps into Minnesota over the next 48 hours. Temperatures soar to June levels Thursday afternoon, and your body feels like July by Friday as temperatures soar well into the 80s. Don't be shocked to see your local bank thermometer flashing the first 90 degree temperature of the year Friday afternoon.

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Weather volatility in Minnesota can seem like the derivatives market. The free sweeping of air masses across our state means big, dramatic temperature swings. Major weather modifying mountains or oceans act like stock market volatility curbs in some parts of the world. With the localized exception of Lake Superior, the old adage of nothing but a barbed wire fence between Minnesota, the North Pole, and the Gulf of Mexico still applies.

From frost advisories in Eau Claire Thursday morning to near 90 degrees by Friday afternoon?

Welcome to weather life at 45-degrees north latitude.

Warm southwest breezes kick in on the backside of high pressure Thursday and Friday. A weak cool front draped across Minnesota may spark a few pop-up thundershowers Friday afternoon and evening. No 'risk areas' from NOAA's SPC so far.

Highs make the 70s Thursday afternoon in eastern Minnesota. 80s push into the west.

By Friday the 'thermal ridge' of warmest temperatures pushes east across Minnesota. 85 degrees may be conservative for the Twin Cities metro. The season's first 90 degree reading is not out of the question for parts of southern Minnesota by 4 or 5 pm Friday.

An early preview of coming attractions for the summer of 2016?

The detailed look at the next week features slight rain & thunder chances Friday afternoon and evening. A more widespread rain event may be brewing early next week.

Tracking the smoke plume

This may go on for a while. Numerous wildfires are burning in the tinder dry forests in the Canadian Rockies and in the prairies.

The smoke plume is clearly visible from space. NOAA's GOES 2 km resolution visible satellite tracks wisps of smoke drifting south over the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

The National Weather Service office in Grand Forks sees smoke visible aloft.

The images pouring into social media of the fire sweeping through the town of Fort McMurray are striking. Yes, twitter has changed the way we cover breaking news.

Images from the air give additional perspective on the immense scope of the fires.

The perspective on a rapidly moving wildfire blowing into a town of 80,000 is frightening. The reality of the videos of people driving through fire to escape as homes burn around them is even worse. You can't make this stuff up.

Climate change connection?

You knew it wouldn't take long.

Mashable's Andrew Freedman has some excellent perspective on why the attribution to an increase in the frequency of destructive wildfires like the Fort McMurray blaze is fast and has a high degree of scientific certainty.

Here are some select excerpts from the piece.

The wildfire that continues to rage throughout the Fort McMurray, Alberta area, prompting at least 80,000 people to flee the flames in the largest fire-related evacuation in Alberta's history, is no fluke in this era of megafires across the American West and the mighty Boreal forests of Canada, Alaska and Russia.

It is yet another warning sign of a climate system run amok, due to a combination of human-caused global warming and natural climate variability, according to climate studies and experts.

According to Mike Flannigan, a wildfire specialist at the University of Alberta, the area burned by wildfires in Alberta has more than doubled since 1970, a trend he said is partly tied to global warming.

Climate data shows that Fort McMurray has seen an increase in the number of days with high temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius, or 77 degrees Fahrenheit, since 1950. This number has jumped from an average of 21 such days in 1950 to an average of 35 such days in 2010. 

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2013 found that boreal forests, which form a ring around the world just below the Arctic Circle, have been burning at rates that are unprecedented in 10,000 years. That study tied such burn rates to warming temperatures and increased evaporation.

Global warming is also leading to more extreme fire weather days such as what occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday, with dry soils, record temperatures and strong winds. 

A study Flannigan published in the journal Climatic Change earlier this year, for example, found that as average temperatures increase in parts of Canada, the result will be "a higher frequency of extreme fire weather days" due mainly to the drying influence of warmer temperatures.

“The weather is becoming more conducive to fire like we’re seeing this spring," Flannigan told Mashable in an interview.

“The increase in fire activity in Canada is due to human-caused climate change,” he said.

Stay tuned.