Stay Curious. Stay Connected.
MailNewsletters♡Donate Now
Sign up
*Password must be at least 8 characters and contain one uppercase letter, one lowercase letter, one number and one symbol.
Already have an account?
By submitting, you consent that you are at least 18 years of age and to receive information about MPR's or APMG entities' programs and offerings. The personally identifying information you provide will not be sold, shared, or used for purposes other than to communicate with you about MPR, APMG entities, and its sponsors. You may opt-out at any time clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of any email communication. View our Privacy Policy.
Sign in to your profile
Forgot Password?
New to MPR News?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Reset Password

Enter the username on file and we'll send you a code to reset your password.

Still require assistance or not sure what your User Name is?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Email Verification

A verification code has been emailed to

Still awaiting the code?
Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Damaging central Plains tornado outbreak Tuesday

Go Deeper.

Create an account or log in to save stories.

Like this?

Thanks for liking this story! We have added it to a list of your favorite stories.

The season's first significant tornado and severe weather outbreak is shaping up for the central Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center paints a moderate risk for severe storms Tuesday that will likely include tornadoes across a big chunk of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma City and Wichita, Kansas are in the moderate risk zone Tuesday.

425 risk 1
NOAA

NOAA's convective outlook highlights the risk Tuesday. The language includes the relatively rare warning for damaging storms that may persist well into the night.

...SUMMARY...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 

NOAA is still considering an upgrade to high risk for the storm zone.

Severe storms recipe

Several key ingredients are coming together to create the likely environment for severe storms and tornadoes. A potent upper level low spins into the central Plains Tuesday.

NOAA's NAM 4 km model simulated radar reflectivity paints the notion of individual "discrete" supercells capable of producing tornadoes in the risk zone Tuesday evening in the image below.

425 risk zone
NOAA NAM 4 km simulated radar for 9pm CDT Tuesday evening. College of Dupage.

The system also has the potential to spawn long track tornadoes that may be on the ground for more than 25 miles. However, strong low level winds may limit the number of called long-track tornadoes with paths over 25 miles.

THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL -- I.E. NUMEROUS LONG-TRACK TORNADOES -- PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK WITH THIS FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

Then again, even a small EF1 tornado can ruin your day. If you have friends or relatives in the risk zone you may want to call and make sure they have a heads up for tomorrow.