Spring fever alert: 70s arrive this week
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Buckle up Minnesota. The next ride on Minnesota's famed weather roller coaster is about to begin.
Our early week chill factor eases Tuesday. Southerly winds blow in temperatures 30 degrees warmer late this week. Act fast to acquire that coveted table for an outdoor lunch Friday.
One more frosty night
No, this probably won't be the last night we see frost in the Twin Cities. And I expect many more nights below freezing up north. Temps plunge into the teens and even single digits in the colder nooks and crannies like Embarrass up north Tuesday morning.
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The average date of the last 32-degree temp in spring at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport? April 29. More like the first week of May for the suburbs.
When I was a little weather geek in Minnesota my mother used to say you waited until Memorial Day to plant the annuals. Now it's more like Mother's Day. Maybe May Day for the next generation?
Anatomy of a warming trend
This is how it happens in spring in Minnesota. It's all about wind direction. Bitter northwest winds pulling frigid air off the Canadian shield give way to warm fronts and southerly breezes this week.
Watch the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 4 km resolution model feed successive warm pulses into Minnesota.
I like the look of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model numbers later this week. The European model is leading the charge into spring with four days at or above the 70 degree mark Thursday through Sunday. Excellent timing for the weekend?
Winter weather done?
I finally pulled the snow stakes from the Weather Lab driveway last weekend. I think it's finally safe to uncover the roses after tonight.
Temps by Friday afternoon run a good 15 degrees warmer than the average high of 58 degrees for MSP. A well placed splash of red over the Upper Midwest is evident on the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer.
Many of you have asked me about this. Thankfully NOAA has responded to its use of ALL CAPS in many NWS products.
Severe weather awareness week
The forecast look quiet this week. Here's a great resource to step up your seasonal "situational awareness" for this severe weather awareness week in Minnesota.
And yes, strong EF3 and higher tornadoes do occur in Minnesota.
Cooler next week
Next week looks a bit cooler than the weekend ahead, but not as cold as what we've just been through. Shower chances increase by Sunday night, but especially next Monday and Tuesday. Look for highs in the 50s and 60s next week. In other words, typical April weather in Minnesota.
El Nino delivered to northern California
If you've been reading this space and listening to me on Climate Cast you know I've been a bit obsessed with how El Nino is playing out in California.
The good news? Northern California reservoirs and snow-pack have responded nicely. Southern California? Not so much.
An update from Brian Kahn at Climate Central.
Californians, say hello to an old friend. After four years of drought, the state’s largest reservoir is again a reservoir instead of a mudpit.
Lake Shasta, located in the northern half of the state, was down to just 29 percent of normal storage capacity as recently as December. But one of the strongest El Niño’s on record has helped steer rain to the reservoir as well as much of the rest of northern California. The result is a sight not seen in quite some time: Lake Shasta is at 109 percent of its historical capacity for this time of year, the first time that’s happened in three years.
You can see the progress of this rainy season thanks to Landsat images put together by NASA’s Earth Observatory.
The rest of California, however, hasn’t been quite as lucky. The end of March marks the tail end of California’s rainy season and even optimists would struggle to call the this year an overall success.
El Niño helped steer enough rain and snow to the the northern part of California to help cut into the multi-year drought that’s plagued the state. Southern California hasn’t received nearly as much precipitation and more than a third of the state is still in the most dire category of drought. Dry conditions have started to creep back into the southeast corner of the state.
Climate whiplash: La Nina next?
Make it count California. The extra water you got from El Nino this winter and spring may have to last. Conditions in the tropical Pacific favor a quick snap back into a La Nina phase as soon as next winter.
A developing La Nina may portend yet more dryness for California next winter.
Back in November, El Niño reached a fever pitch, vaulting into the ranks of the strongest events on record and wreaking havoc on weather patterns around the world. Now it is beginning to wane as the ocean cools, so what comes next?
It’s possible that by next fall, the tropical Pacific Ocean could seesaw into a state that is roughly El Niño’s opposite, forecasters say. Called La Niña, this climate state comes with its own set of global impacts, including higher chances of a dry winter in drought-plagued California and warm, wet weather in Southeast Asia.
