Springy today, soaking rains start tonight

"Make no big decisions in March in Minnesota." - Dave Moore, WCCO-TV News Legend

There are certain things those of us who lived through the 1970s in Minnesota have permanently etched into our collective DNA. Lakes frozen solid and deep snow on the ground in March.  Four Viking Super Bowl losses.

Dave Moore was blessed a gift with words few others have matched. The March's of Dave's hall of fame TV news career in Minnesota capped off some of the most brutal winters in Minnesota history. Somehow Dave made us all feel a little warmer during the last of winter's cold.

I wonder what Dave would have said to us about the recent trends in warmer Minnesota winters. Diminishing wintery breezes in March. The fact that March is no longer the snowiest month on average in Minnesota. More frequent rains during a month that used to look like winter in Minnesota.

• +8.4 degrees temps vs. average so far  in March in the Twin Cities.

• 7th straight warmer than average month in Minnesota.

• 5.4" snowfall so far this March at MSP Airport (-4.4" vs. average)

• 36.2" snowfall this season at MSP Airport (-15.3" vs. average)

Late April warmth today

That spring in your step today is courtesy of more mild southerly breezes.

Smudgy high cirrus clouds filter an increasingly warm sun today. Today's sun angle and intensity are equal to September 11th, just after Labor Day. I'm forecasting a high near 65 in the metro and southern Minnesota if the sun stays out for long enough. That's 17 degrees above the average high of 48 today. Clouds thicken late, and a band of rain with possible embedded thunder rolls northeast by this evening.

April showers in March

Here's a more detailed look at our inbound storm system. We ride the mild side through tomorrow, meaning mostly rain. Enough cold air works in behind the system for some wet snowflakes Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Springy soaker?

As usual, models disagree about eventual rainfall totals.

Some locations north and east of the metro could see a soaking inch of rain. My best estimate at this point is between .50" and .75" from MSP south and west. I'll keep my fingers crossed for a better soaking. The system produces heavy rains along the Gulf coast states.

Iowa severe risk

The severe stuff should stay down in Iowa late tonight and tomorrow. NOAA's SPC marginal severe risk line straddles the Iowa Minnesota border tomorrow. Preview of coming attractions as spring unfolds.

March swan song: Glancing cold

Out like a Siberian Lion? Why not? Here's the upper air map for Friday, a deep low pressure trof over the Upper Midwest with a swipe of cold.

The frigid swat looks like a glancing blow compared to what some were saying last week. Wind turn quickly more westerly again by next Tuesday, as milder pacific air pushes back in.

More consistent 50s and 60s return in the 1-2 week range?

Stay tuned.