All or Nothing: Oddball storm bisects Twin Cities

Tale of Two Forecasts

They didn't teach us how to forecast this in weather school.

It snowed in the metro Wednesday. Sort of.

Now we know what they mean when they say "all weather is local."

Wednesdays's snow system produced an unusually razor sharp and stationary snowfall cutoff line that bisected the Twin Cities.

Highly variable snowfall totals poured in from around the metro. The northwest metro literally reported no snow. Minnetonka through the downtowns picked up little more than a slushy coating.

• Minnetonka [Hennepin Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 0.30 INCH at 4:20 PM CDT --

• 1 NNW North ST Paul [Ramsey Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 0.90 INCH at 5:50 PM CDT --

• Downtown ST Paul [Ramsey Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 2.00 INCH at 4:55 PM CDT --

MSP Airport recorded just half an inch of snow through afternoon, with 3.7" by evening.

The southern suburbs less than 10 miles away got 10+ inches with snow still falling. A few snow totals will reach a foot plus in the south metro.

• Burnsville [Dakota Co, MN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports SNOW of 10.00 INCH at 6:10 PM CDT --

• Prior Lake [Scott Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 10.00 INCH at 5:00 PM CDT --

• Savage [Scott Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 12.00 INCH at 23 Mar, 7:15 PM CDT --

In the warning zone the snow came down fast and hard as predicted by NWS and others. Here's are some beautiful before and after shots from trained weather spotter Nick Benson of Burnsville.

Forecast: Kinder and gentler

The forecast looks much quieter the next few days. Milder breezes and 50s return next week.

NOAA's GFS wins one vs Euro

Chalk up a victory for NOAA's GFS model as far as the northern edge of snow zone over the Twin Cities with this storm. It handled the track better than the Euro model. It's a good reminder that even though the Euro is measurably more accurate overall, it doesn't win every local forecast battle.

The European model just added another resolution upgrade. Some interesting insight here from Ars Technica.

The European forecast model already outperforms all of the world’s other global forecasting systems, including the North American GFS model. The most overt demonstration of the European model’s superiority came in the week before Hurricane Sandy’s devastating landfall in 2012. Out of more than a dozen computer forecasts, only it showed the storm veering along a path toward the East Coast of the United States instead of staying harmlessly out to sea.

Now the world’s best forecast model is getting better, and not just by a little bit. An upgrade that went live this week provides dramatic improvements to the resolution of the model, both for its deterministic forecast as well as the ensemble model runs that are used for forecasting conditions a week or more in the future. “What the European modeling community is doing is just amazing,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell, told Ars. “This is the golden age of weather forecasters. It’s an absolute wonder of computer modeling technology.”

Weather Wars on Weather Lab plus Climate Cast Friday at 10 am

This Friday at 10 am on Weather Lab on MPR News (91.1 FM in the metro) we dig deeper into the world of weather forecast modeling. Major weather wars are underway between NOAA and the ECMWF. I have some great geust who will talk about the inside baseball of how weather models are made, and what we can expect from NOAA and Euro upgrades this year.

On Climate Cast  at 10:30 am we drill down into the story of Minnesota's prized walleye in Lake Mille Lacs and other lakes. How is climate change affecting the food chain that feeds the walleye population? And how is the Minnesota DNR working on 'refuge lakes' to preserve future walleye habitat?

Its going to be a great discussion and we need your input. Two ways to participate. You can call in during the show Friday in the 10 am hour with questions and comments at 651-227-6000 or 800-242-2828.

Also I am looking for your thoughts and observations on today's weird snowstorm, and how you feel about this spring in general? What are you seeing in nature around you this week? Please drop me an email at phuttner@mpr.org with your thoughts. I may contact you and ask to get your voice on the show Friday if you have a cool observation.

I hope you'll listen Friday at 10 am and tell your nerdy weather friends. We're all in the same 'weather tribe' after all.