Winter Storm: Still high uncertainty for metro

Something's got to give.

All systems are still go for a major winter storm for southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon continuing through Wednesday night. For the Twin Cities metro there is still a very high degree of uncertainty regarding precise storm track and eventual snowfall totals. There are still major model differences that need to be resolved.

Storm headlines

• Winter storm watch continues for southern Minnesota and now includes Twin Cities.

• Main snow wave spreads across southern Minnesota Wednesday midday and afternoon.

• High confidence for heavy snowfall and difficult travel south of Twin Cities.

• Still low confidence on eventual Twin Cities snowfall totals.

• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model (still) keeps snow south of Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

• The overnight (o6Z) Global Forecast System model dramatically lowered MSP snowfall totals.

• Southeast metro stands the best chance of accumulating snowfall late Wednesday.

The storm

Here's another look at the potent low pressure system wrapping up and driving across the Midwest Wednesday. Southern Minnesota still looks to be in the snowy crosshairs. The Twin Cities metro rides the razor sharp northern edge of the snow zone Wednesday.

Winter storm watches expanded north

The Twin Cities National Weather Service office expanded the winter storm watch north overnight to include the Twin Cities metro. They did that based on last night's (0Z) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration model runs that continued to show a northward jog in the possible storm track that would include the Twin Cities in the significant to heavy snow zone.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST PAUL...STILLWATER...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST PETER...RICE LAKE...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...CHIPPEWA FALLS

339 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE MORE THAN 12 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Here's the video briefing from the Twin Cities NWS office. I'm not sold just yet on the notion of heavy metro snowfall. Let's see what today's model runs bring.

Model wars continue

To this forecaster, a major winter storm still looks likely south of the metro Wednesday. But several interesting developments overnight and early this morning continue to cloud eventual forecast snowfall totals for the metro.

• The European model still keeps all snow south of MSP and the Twin Cities metro.

• The 06Z GFS model run that came in around 4 am showed a significant jog south from the previous 0Z run. Metro snowfall totals on that run dropped dramatically as the storm track trended more in line with the Euro's southern solution.

• A sharp snowfall cutoff on the storm's northern edge will likely produce a huge snowfall gradient in or near the Twin Cities.

• We could literally see a difference in snowfall totals from 6 inches-plus to zero in just 40 miles near the northern edge of the storm.

Here's a look at the overnight forecast from the European model for the metro, which came in around 3 a.m. Still no snow for the Twin Cities according to the European model.

Even the most northerly solution, NOAA's North American Mesoscale Forecast System model showed a dramatic southerly shift in the snow zone over MSP. The 0Z NAM was cranking out over 10 inches at MSP Airport. The 06z run cut that in half.

Note the heavy snow zone still in play south of the metro. If you are planning travel south of the twin Cities along Highway 169, Interstate 35, Highway 52 or east along Interstate 94 you may want to reconsider travel Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

Bottom line

• Major winter storm likely for southern Minnesota Wednesday including Fairmont, Albert Lea, Mankato, Northfield, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing and Eau Claire, Wis., areas.

• 6- to 12-inch-plus snowfall totals likely on southern Minnesota by Thursday morning.

• High winds will create blowing and drifting snows.

• Twin Cities metro snowfall totals still uncertain, winter storm watch in effect.

• This morning 12Z model runs, and the afternoon Euro run should (hopefully) clarify eventual metro snowfall totals.

Stay tuned!