Springy now, Wednesday snow chances shifting south?

Welcome to the latest edition of weather forecast model wars.

In this corner, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's newly upgraded Global Forecast System and and North American Mesoscale Forecast System models.

In the far corner, the heavily favored and usually trusty European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and it's partner in weather crime the Canadian model. Who will win the big weather forecast accuracy prize this week?

If you've ever wondered what keeps meteorologists up at night, it's forecast model spread. No doubt you've already heard the early meteorological babble about metro snow potential Wednesday. The latest trends and the smart money appear to be on a "southern solution" that could leave the bulk of the metro snow free Wednesday.

This week's weather forecast should come with a warning label.

"Users of this weather forecast may experience low forecast confidence and a high degree of uncertainty in the eventual outcome."

Snow chance favors southern Minnesota

The latest model trends suggest to this forecaster that the best chance for accumulating snow is shifting south this week. The trusty European Centre model and the Canadian model steer this system's snow shield south of Minneapolis-St. Paul Wednesday across the Interstate 90 corridor and even into northern Iowa.

The Twin Cities National Weather Service picks up on the southern trend below. At this point I'm leaning toward the European model solution that would produce a near miss for the metro with little, or even no snowfall accumulation for most of the Twin Cities.

Keep the shovel and snowblower handy across southern Minnesota in Worthington, Albert Lea and Rochester and into La Crosse, Wis.

Forecast: Zero to 20 inches?

At one point Sunday that's what NOAA's Short Range Ensemble Forecast plumes were cranking out. Two dozen models, two dozen solutions. The range in metro snowfall was literally zero to nearly 20 inches at one point Sunday.

Today's SREF runs have trended lower, more in line with the European Centre's thinking. Maybe the Europeans have it right. One model. The best model physics with better data assimilation running just twice a day.

Here's a look at the wide range in NOAA's suite of model plumes for snowfall this week.

Southern trend

NOAA's official surface trends still favor some metro snowfall, with the heaviest totals across southern Minnesota. My hunch? This product may trend farther south in the next 24 hours.

Euro: No metro snow?

The European model has been rock solid if nothing else on the notion of a southern storm track. Here's the Euro output for the Twin Cities this week. Mixed sun and 40 degrees Wednesday and Thursday? It could happen.

Betting against the Euro? It's like picking a number instead of a color on the weather roulette wheel. You might win, but the odds are usually long.

Canadian model agrees

Last night's Canadian model run agrees with the Euro on the southern storm track that would produce no snow for the Twin Cities.

Milder next week?

The model forecast differences continue into next week. NOAA's outlook favors colder than average temps across the Rockies and Upper Midwest next week.

Meanwhile the European model is cranking out mid-to upper 50s for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. That's nearly 10 degrees warmer than average.

As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned.