DVR spring of 2016 skips to the warm parts

Maypril?

We're going to need some new month names to describe our weather this spring.

• 60 degrees high Sunday at MSP Airport

• March 29th average date of first 60 degree temp at MSP

• +25 degrees vs. average early this week across Minnesota

More May than March

The map above may be conservative on temperatures in the Twin Cities tomorrow.

Low pressure edges into western Minnesota tomorrow. By midday the low is just west of the Twin Cities. Moisture rides north ahead of the front with scattered showers and even some thunder. A Pacific front brings pleasantly cool temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. But cool fronts are really just 'average fronts' this year. Temps still hover about 10 degrees warmer than average by mid-week.

Near record warmth tomorrow

If we pop some sun, temps could spike briefly into the upper 60s. My quick temperature computation comes up with 68 tomorrow afternoon for the metro, if we get a few hours of midday sun. The Euro model agrees, and cranks out a near record high of 68 for MSP tomorrow. Tuesday's record is 69 degrees set in 2000.

A 60-degree dew point on March 8th? That's a typical dew point reading for May or even early June, and indicative of atmospheric moisture levels way out of bounds for early March. In fact, NOAA's Storm prediction Center is painting a marginal severe risk into a place that should be off-limits for early March; southwest Minnesota. A more significant severe threat comes together in the southern Plains.

The slow moving front and deep Gulf moisture will dump some heavy, even flooding rainfall totals over the southern Plains.

Check out the multi-inch rainfall totals for the southern U.S. this week.

March Miracle in California?

The Super El Nino has been a little underwhelming for California rainfall and snow totals this winter. But an active early March pattern is making up some lost ground this week. Call it a March miracle.

Some areas have already picked up 2 to 3 feet of snow.

Liquid precip totals of 10 to 15" in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains translate into as much as 100" of precious snow at the highest elevations. White gold for skiers, liquid gold for California water supplies this summer.

Spring fever again this weekend

The Butterfly Effect on Minnesota when big storms pound the west coast? Southerly breezes ahead of western lows blow across Minnesota again by Friday. The Euro model numbers below may be too conservative. I can see 60s again by Friday, with more April showers possible again this weekend.

Mild into next week?

Temperatures look very mild into early next week. The upper air pattern by next Monday still looks like (late) April, the jet stream on an extended Canadian vacation.

I can see more 60s, with a slow moving low and another shot of April showers next Monday-Wednesday. There are signs of a cool down late next week, but probably not below average. NOAA's outlooks all lean warm through March.

Keep an eye on your garden for unusual things popping up in the next two weeks.