Spring fever alert: April showers and 50s next week

The gas gauge on winter in Minnesota is flashing yellow.

48 hours. That's about how much more winter may be left in the tank this season. If you love winter in Minnesota, you better get out there and enjoy our weather through Friday.

All major model runs point to another major warming trend starting Saturday afternoon and lasting through most of next week. How far out of whack will Minnesota's temperatures be next week?

• 37 degrees - average high temperature in the Twin Cities Monday.

• 50 to 60 degrees - my forecast range of high temperatures in the Twin Cities next week.

• +13 to +23 degrees - temperature vs. average across Minnesota next week.

• April 10 - date average high reaches 55 degrees at MSP Airport.

• March 29 - average date of first 60-degree temperature in the Twin Cities.

Winter's last gasp?

We'll probably get more snow in March. Probably. But I'm beginning to wonder about that.

Two more Clippers zip by this week before the next wave of mild Pacific air gushes east into Minnesota. One lays down a light snowy coating tonight across southwest half of Minnesota, another Friday brings a light rain-snow mix to the metro with some accumulating snow north. The maps.

The Twin Cities NWS does a nice job of condensing the forecast for the next few days. The best chance of shovelable snow Friday? Ely, Brainerd, Iron Range, North Shore, northern Wisconsin. Then the warm up is on.

A shot at 60? Thunder?

Next week's weather maps look like April. I like the look of the GFS numbers below. I see (at least) 60 degrees as a real possibility next week. And our premature April showers special could come with a free a side of thunder.

A predictable end to a mild winter?

No it wasn't much of a winter in Minnesota this season. It was a top 10 warmest winter for most locations in Minnesota, and the 8th warmest on record for the Twin Cities.

Here's more detail and context on the year without (much of) a winter from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

The Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) of 2015-16 for Minnesota wound up being warmer than normal, and near normal or wetter than normal for most of the state.

The warmth took center stage in Minnesota for the winter of 2015-16. The preliminary average statewide temperature for December-February is 20.4 degrees, or 5.4 degrees above average.  The warmth was most pronounced in December with many locations seeing a top ten warmest December.

The preliminary statewide average precipitation total is 3.91 inches or 1.34 inches above normal. The bulk of the heaviest precipitation fell in liquid form with even some rare thunderstorms in southern Minnesota on December 16 and February 19.

Snowfall amounts varied greatly, with many places seeing below normal snowfall. The Twin Cities saw 25.7 inches of snow, which is 6.1 inches below the December-February normal. St. Cloud saw 20 inches of snow or 6.3 inches short of normal. It was snowier in northeast Minnesota with Duluth piling up 49.8 inches or 3.9 inches above normal. Duluth precipitation also finished well above normal with 5.58 inches, 2.60 inches above normal. International Falls wound up with 29.7 inches of snow or 9.9 inches short of normal for December through February.

Snow cover was sluggish to take hold in the state, with bare ground over much of the state on December 10. The deepest snow pack in the Twin Cities was accompanied by the large snowstorm of with 9.4 inches on February 2-3, 2016.

8th warm month in a row?

Looking further ahead into the weather tea leaves, I still think March will come in with a significant warm bias across Minnesota. The latest GFS runs suggest mostly days in the 50s, and some significant bouts of rain and thunder. That would pretty much take out the sketchy ice in most lakes across at least the southern half of Minnesota.

If this outlook comes even close to verifying, we will be looking at ice out 2-3 weeks earlier than average, and possibly some record early ice out on some lakes.

April showers bring may flowers. March showers, April lilacs and a 7 month boating season this year?

Stay tuned.