Snowy dustings ahead, March rains next week

Weather roulette

If you don't like the weather in Minnesota, just wait 15 minutes. - anonymous

That oft used tidbit of weather wisdom speaks to the high degree of variability in Minnesota's weather historically. Recent data shows Minnesota's weather is getting even more volatile.

More extreme rainfall events. Increased out of season temperature swings. A 3-fold increase in winter rainfall frequency as our climate warms faster in winter than any other season.

So it comes as little surprise to seasoned climate watchers that rain should arrive in the forecast early this spring. Next week's soaking rains may approach an inch in spots and could puddle up on still partially frozen soils.

In the meantime we watch a couple of minor Clippers zip through with snowy to slushy coatings this week.

Northwest flow

The jet stream overhead funnels weather systems quickly from northwest to southeast this week. Wednesday night's Clipper brings another snowy dusting to the southern half of Minnesota.

Friday brings a second Clipper with a slushy rain-snow mix. The European model continues to lead the way with temperatures well into the 50s, and rain next week.

The long range GFS data concurs with the notion of a mild bias well into March.

NOAA's longer range 3-4 week temp outlook agrees with what we've been saying for months now. Warm and warmer.

Next up; Ice free lakes, March crocus, daffodils and tulips? Preview of coming attractions in a super charged El Nino winter into spring.