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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

February hot front: 50s look more likely Saturday

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Just wow.

Call it weather gone wild. The overnight forecast model runs are cranking out some off the charts warm numbers for Saturday's inbound Pacific air mass.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model agree 50 degrees may be a conservative start for where temperatures land Saturday afternoon.

Check out the impressive temperature bump on the European Centre output for Saturday afternoon.

200 224 kky
Weatherspark ECMWF data

Grilling weather

Even NOAA's often more conservative models are cranking out near record temperatures Saturday afternoon. The record high at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is 54 Saturday. NOAA's digital forecast database spits out 53 degrees for the Twin Cities Saturday, with 40s along a Fargo, N.D., to Duluth line.

200 224MaxT4_uppermissvly (1)
NOAA

Big league warm front

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Twin Spring training in Fort Myers, Fla. Baseball weather may not be far behind in Minnesota.

Take a look at the maps. A major league rainstorm in late February sweeps the northeast. A long warm front pushes east into the Dakotas by Friday, bound for Minnesota by Saturday.

200 224allfcsts_loop_ndfd
NOAA

The perfect February heat storm?

Here's why I'm increasingly confident 50s are likely Saturday afternoon for the metro and a big chunk of southern Minnesota.

  • A westerly wind is one of our warmest, and will blow over snow free areas.

  • Sunshine looks likely, our sun angle and intensity by Saturday is equal to Oct. 15!

  • Snow cover should be just about gone over most of southern Minnesota by Saturday.

  • Sunshine over snow free areas will allow maximum warming of inbound air mass.

200 224 snow
NOAA/NOHRSC

More 50s ahead?

After a brief cool down early next week, the European Centre model also suggests we're not done with premature spring air mass intrusions just yet. Another wave of 50s late next week? It's too early to be confident, but you've got my attention Euro.

200 224 kky2
Weatherspark - ECMWF data

Frost coming out super early?

Frost depths across Minnesota are remarkably shallow this winter. With snow disappearing and temps in the 50s, this could be on of the earliest frost free seasons on record in parts of Minnesota.

200 224 frost
NOAA

The smart money locally still looks to be be on one of the earliest springs and shortest winter on record.

Stay tuned.