Even in Super El Nino, California looking for snow

We've often pointed out that not all El Nino events are created equal. The atmospheric effects in any given El Nino winter can vary depending on strength and distribution of warm water in the Pacific. Not to mention other still unknown unknowns about El Nino southern oscillation cycles.

Still it's a bit surprising to some that California is not doing better with overall snowpack numbers in the Sierras. As of this week, California snowpack is running just 93 percent of average statewide. That's better than previous years but disappointing considering the strength of El Nino this winter.

Reservoirs struggle to recover

California's water reservoirs have started to recover this winter, but still contain far less water than average in most areas. Most of the major California reservoirs are running between 30 percent and 50 percent of historical averages.

Forecast: Dry and drier

The prospects for more rain and mountain snow in California in the next week look slim. Multi-inch rains favor the Ohio Valley, with rain and higher elevation snows in the Pacific Northwest barely grazing far northern California.

The month of March will be critical for California. A cool wet month could improve water resources this year. A warm dry month could eat away at precious mountain snows, and continue the recent longer term drought cycle.

So far the early read for March looks to continue the dry pattern.

Stay tuned.