Winter goes out like a lamb; a shot at 50 Saturday?

The season formerly known as winter appears ready to go out like it came in. Like a baby lamb.

Forecasts of an unseasonably warm winter have panned out for Minnesota. Above average temperatures. Sketchy winter ice conditions on lakes. Iffy winter snow cover. Changes and cancellations in outdoor winter events.

In the Dark Ages 1,200 years ago some would have attributed a warm winter to the Viking gods. Even 50 years ago we had no real idea what drove large scale seasonal atmospheric patterns.

Advances in weather and climate science now tell us the real cause of our mild winter. The growing background hum of climate change. The strongest El Nino on record.

One week of winter

We're in the home stretch now, the final week of meteorological winter. Even with an extra calendar day of winter in this leap year, this winter is likely to go down in the books as about the 10th mildest on record dating back to 1872. Here are some numbers going into the final week of (meteorological) winter.

• +4.8 degrees temperatures vs. average this winter so far

• + 6 degrees approximate temps vs. average in the next week

• 23.3 degrees approximate estimated final winter temperature average for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• 10th warmest winter on record if that number holds up

The final numbers next week may vary from my crude calculations above, but this will likely go down as about the 10th warmest winter on record in the Twin Cities give or take. That's consistent with, but not quite as warm as other "Super El Nino" winter like 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.

40 degrees again

Temperatures nudged 40 degrees again Tuesday afternoon at the irport around 3:15 p.m.  That's the fifth time this February we've manged 40 at MSP. It's also 8 degrees warmer than the average high of 32 for Feb. 23 at the airport. Another straw on the fattening temperature pile guaranteeing a milder than average February when the final numbers come in.

Another shot at 50 Saturday?

Temperatures bounce around in the 30s through Friday. We'll see some mixed sun the rest of the week. By Saturday, fading snow cover and another shot of unseasonably mild Pacific air pushes temperatures well into the upper 40s, with a real shot at 50 degrees from the metro west again.

Here's the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts run into next week.

It's amazing how close spring like weather has been this winter. I predict another day of temperatures in the 60s Saturday less than a day's drive south and west. Thermometers hitting 50 again are likely in southwestern Minnesota, maybe even the west metro.

March: Slight mild bias?

Looking ahead to March, the latest trends continue to suggest a milder than average month overall. Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest experimental three- to four-week temperature outlook.

We may still got some brief wintry cold snaps in March, and I can't rule out the stray (hockey) tournament snow storm.

Stay tuned.