Slushy 2016 Birkebeiner? Low Lake Superior ice cover

Winter's home stretch

We're in the bottom of the 7th inning on winter this year. Maybe even the top of the 8th.

There's now just two weeks left to go in Meteorological Winter 2016. A major February thaw is headed for the Upper Midwest later this week. Another Pacific breeze in an El Nino-flavored winter that's lacked any sustained Arctic outbreaks. February is running slightly cooler than average overall as of now, but it won't last as temperatures push 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average by late this week. Winter's not over just yet and March can be a fickle month, but the writing is on the seasonal wall.

Get out there and enjoy the snow around parts of Minnesota while it lasts.

• 30 degrees - average high temp at MSP as of this week.

• 49 degrees ECMWF temperature output for MSP Saturday

• + 3 minutes per day of daylight gain in Minnesota now.

• Sunday - pitchers and catchers report to Minnesota Twins spring training in Fort Myers.

One more Clipper

One more Clipper sails through southwest Minnesota overnight into Tuesday morning. Another inch or two of snow lays down with this one from Appleton and Marshall through Redwood Falls, Pipestone, Windom, St. James and Worthington.

The system gives another glancing blow to the Twin Cities, but another light snowy dusting could cause some issues for the morning commute Tuesday. Plan accordingly.

Warm front ahead

Another Clipper. One more temporary cool front. The next warm front developing in the Dakotas later this week before surging east into Minnesota ahead of an inbound Pacific storm . The maps tell the story through midweek.

5-day mega-thaw?

And the mild weather this just keep on comin' this winter. This could be the most significant thaw since December. The latest ECMWF model data supports the notion of temperatures 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average by late this week. 5 days (significantly) above the thawing point?

Prepare to say hello to your lawn again. The patchy 2" snow cover around the metro should be history by this weekend. It's not out of the question a few bank thermometers in the metro could flash 50 degrees Saturday.

"Soft" snow at Birkebeiner  2016

What kind of wax works best for slush?

I'm sure the course groomers at the 2016 American Birkebeiner have a few tricks up there sleeve for grooming in above freezing temps. Temperatures may drop just below freezing Friday night, and that should help some. The cool and less sunny forest micro-climate may also help preserve some of the integrity of the snow.

That said this looks like a very soft year for the Birkie. Some rain and temps pushing 42 degrees in Hayward Friday will make for a challenge.

Saturday still looks warm, morning temps a few degrees below freezing give way to highs around 40 again in the afternoon.

Here's a more detailed two-hourly resolution look at probable temperatures and conditions on Friday and Saturday in Hayward.

I wish I had better news about snow conditions for racers. In this El Nino winter of cancelled, rescheduled and modified winter events this was probably destined to be a warm Birkebeiner. The bright side? At least all the other weekend race related events will be enjoyable outdoors.

Great Lakes ice cover running low

Great Lakes ice cover is an excellent barometer of our winter weather. At 31.4% of ice cover today, this year's overall coverage on the Great Lakes is running about half of where it was last winter at this point and way behind the 80.2% coverage of two years ago.

At just 19.4% of ice cover today, the data for Lake Superior is even more stark compared to the last two years. It takes Viking cold to freeze over the freshwater biggest lake on the planet.

Great lakes ice cover usually peaks in March. The long term average for annual peak ice is 53.2%.

From the twitterverse

Here are some select stories and tweets that caught my eye today from the twitterverse.

Supreme Court and climate change

The big news over the weekend was the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. The implications for climate change policy could be significant. Here's some perspective from Climate Central.

Another perspective from Slate.

2016 off and running as next hottest year globally

And they're off! As expected El Nino-fueled ocean warmth on top of the rising background tide of climate change has pushed the first month of 2016 into yet more unprecedented record territory.

Japan's Met Agency data concurs.

But will a developing La Nina in the Pacific take the steam out of the early warmth globally in 2016?

The view from space. Amazing high-res images of earth continue to dazzle. Blue Marble indeed.

Record setting Pacific tropical cyclone season in 2015 continues to amaze.

Endless summer in Southern California.

The kicker. Ahhh, to be a puppy in fresh snow again.