A winter storm is brewing
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Update 12:3o p.m. The storm is tracking farther north. The Twin Cities metro area is now under a winter storm warning.
The National Weather Service has doubled its Twin Cities snow forecast and now expects the metro area to receive 6 to 8 inches.
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February is getting underway with some patchy fog this morning. Some surfaces could be icy. Also, many sidewalks are icy where the snow that melted over the weekend has re-frozen.
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Look for highs this afternoon ranging from the mid 20s in the north to the mid 30s in the south where there will be some sunshine. The Twin Cities should warm to about 34 degrees.
The much-advertised winter storm heading our way is centered over the Four Corners area of the Southwest this morning and is poised to track to the northeast. Tuesday will bring rapidly-deteriorating travel conditions to southern and east central Minnesota as snow overspreads the area and the wind increases.
Overnight forecast models have been pushing the snowfall forecast somewhat farther north than what they were predicting over the weekend. This shift increases the chances of snow to shovel and plow at least as far north as the Twin Cities. The latest North American Mesoscale Forecast System model run forecasts snow spreading across parts of southern Minnesota tomorrow morning and reaching the metro area by around noon.
Blizzard or near-blizzard conditions are likely to develop across open areas of southern Minnesota tomorrow and continue tomorrow night, especially along the Interstate 90 corridor where snowfalls of around 6 to 12 inches will be accompanied by significant blowing and drifting.
The greatest snowfall accumulations, probably around 8 to 12 inches, are likely in southeastern Minnesota including Rochester, Austin and Winona.
A variety of winter weather watches and warnings have been issued already and will be updated by the National Weather Service as the storm gets closer.
The blizzard watch for parts of southern Minnesota is likely to be changed to either a blizzard warning or winter storm warning, depending on the strength of the winds, as the storm approaches.
The Twin Cities National Weather Service Office gives a closer look at the expected weather in and near the metro area as well as across southern Minnesota. The area just south of the Twin Cities that has a winter storm watch posted includes New Ulm, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Dakota County in the southeast metro and Pierce County, Wis.
The metro area is likely to be near the northwestern edge of the storm. That will create quite a range of snowfall amounts from maybe a couple inches in the northwestern suburbs to around 6 inches in parts of the southeast metro such as Lakeville, Rosemount and Farmington.
A best forecast estimate for Minneapolis and St. Paul proper would be for around 3 to 5 inches, with St. Paul getting a bit more than Minneapolis.
Keep in mind that this storm is not even close to Minnesota yet so forecast amounts for specific locations could change considerably.
Wednesday will be cooler and fairly breezy as the storm moves away.