Candy coating now; thaw, snow and sub-zero ahead

Spice of Life

What makes Minnesota's weather so interesting? In a word; variety. Always changing. Rarely boring. A continual state of atmospheric reinvention.

Geography matters in weather. Living at the center of a large continent with few obstructions like mountains or modifiers like oceans means vastly different air masses sweep freely across the Upper Midwest. Perpetual weather situational awareness is drilled into Minnesotans at a young age. Lightning fast weather changes?  Job security for Minnesota meteorologists.

This forecast for the next two weeks? Typical Minnesota weather variety. A candy coating of ice and snow. A late January thaw. Another snow chance. A few more sub-zero nights? A little something for everyone in the forecast.

Welcome to Minnesota. Land of 10,000 Weather Extremes.

Sideswiped again

The winter of minor weather systems for Minnesota rolls on. Another Clipper zips by into early Tuesday with a candy coating of ice and snow across the Upper Midwest. Don't blink, you might miss it.

Temperatures hover around the freezing mark in the lowest mile of the atmosphere. A warm layer aloft means freezing drizzle mixes in at times. The best chance for a couple inches of sloppy snow favors southeast Minnesota. Keep an eye out for an icy glaze on untreated roads, parking lots and sidewalk into early Tuesday.

Pacific breezes return later this week pushing a milder air mass in from Seattle. A Canadian Clipper gives northern Minnesota another snowy shot Wednesday night, with a glancing blow for the Twin Cities.

Late January thaw

As Pacific breezes kick in late this week, temperatures will respond upward. Highs in the upper 30s  arrive Thursday through Saturday. A shot at 40 degrees, or higher is quite possible if we can manage a few hours of midday sunshine Friday. ECMWF data hints at colder, potentially sub-zero air again next week.

Snow next week?

Forecast models are at odds over how next week's pattern will evolve across the Upper Midwest. The Euro keeps it mostly dry and colder. NOAA's GFS develops a potential snow system over Minnesota next Tuesday, and then drives another shot of Arctic air south. Here's the GFS idea for next Tuesday, a significant snow producer for parts of Minnesota?

Another sub-zero shot?

You knew it was too early to call the last Arctic outbreak the last sub-zero punch of winter. Upper air patterns favor another negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. That's the pattern that usually produces Arctic outbreaks in winter over the eastern half of the U.S.. The AO appears ready to go "negative" again later next week.

The early read on the advancing cold dome favors more of a glancing blow for Minnesota. I highly doubt the numbers from NOAA's 16-day GFS output below that suggest -20s below in the metro. The GFS is notorious for overdoing extreme cold two weeks out in winter. I expect the next several runs to back off on the magnitude of the cold, but I can easily see a few more sub-zero nights later next week. Remember, temperature trends are more accurate than specifics this far out.

Stay tuned.