AM downpours, storms possible this afternoon
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Our morning round of storms dumped torrential rainfall at the rate of nearly 3 inches per hour in the Twin Cities. Flash flooding and ponding of water messed with the morning commute.
Some 1.5 inch rainfall totals came down in about half an hour in the metro and across Minnesota as the line moved through this morning.
2 WNW Richfield [Hennepin Co, MN] COCORAHS reports HEAVY RAIN of 1.45 INCH at 7:04 AM CDT -- OCCURRED IN APPROXIMATELY 35 MINUTES.
2 SSE Edina [Hennepin Co, MN] COCORAHS reports HEAVY RAIN of 1.74 INCH at 7:08 AM CDT --
Brandon [Douglas Co, MN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HEAVY RAIN of 1.75 INCH at 7:54 AM CDT -- Minnetonka [Hennepin Co, MN] PUBLIC reports HEAVY RAIN of 1.73 INCH at 7:47 AM CDT -- 3 WSW Rosemount [Dakota Co, MN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HEAVY RAIN of 1.31 INCH at 7:45 AM CDT -- OCCURRED IN ABOUT ONE HOUR.
South Minneapolis 1.69"
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Storm rainfall totals from the Twin Cities National Weather Service Doppler show 2 to 3 inch rains in western Minnesota with several 1 inch-plus zones, including the metro.
Round No. 2: Afternoon severe risk?
We catch a break from storms through midday. If we get the anticipated clearing today and sunshine heats us up into the 80s, I expect another round of storms to develop near or just east of Twin Cities metro.
If everything comes together, these storms could be severe. Early look favored a slight risk zone for severe storms this afternoon and evening that included the metro.
Heavy rain hail and high winds are the primary threats. I'm concerned there may be enough wind shear to produce an isolated tornado this afternoon and evening, especially in southeast Minnesota.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has shifted the risk zone slightly southeast this afternoon. The thinking is our thick cloud deck may inhibit redevelopment this afternoon.
If the clouds hang in, the metro may be spared a second wave of storms. If sun breaks out, the storms could develop over the Twin Cities late today. Southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin have the best chance of severe storms late today.
Keep an eye out for possible watches and warnings later.