Holiday weekend outlook: Sunday severe?
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Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to turn blue skies to gray from Montana to Michigan on Friday thanks to a northwesterly flow aloft.
Where the smoke has mixed down to the surface, weather stations have been reporting visibilities reduced to less than two miles in haze in North Dakota and the northwestern edge of Minnesota.
Both Friday and Saturday will bring a lot of fine weather to Minnesota. Scattered thunderstorms will pop with the heating of the day on Friday, mainly in northern Minnesota with just a slight chance of an isolated storm or two near the metro in the evening. No severe weather is expected.
Saturday, Independence Day, will be a fine day for parades, picnics and backyard family gatherings. There is just a chance of a few isolated brief thunderstorms late in the day. Again, no severe weather is expected.
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As we go through the day on Saturday, the upper level winds will switch from northwesterly to westerly or southwesterly and blow most of the smoke away from Minnesota. Blue skies will return. Temperatures will warm into the 80s over much of Minnesota. Winds will be light at fireworks time.
Sunday will be more interesting, meteorologically. Temperatures will be warm, dew points will climb a bit and instability will increase ahead of a cold front aimed our way from the northwest.
Thunderstorms are likely to develop over northwestern Minnesota early Sunday and then increase in coverage and strength as they advance southeastward during the day. The Storm Prediction Center has included the Twin Cities area in a marginal risk area for severe weather late in the day on Sunday. That is a new category this year that means less than a slight risk — sort of a heads up that strong/severe storms might develop. Forecast models have been insisting that thunderstorms will not reach the Twin Cities until after sunset on Sunday.
The best chance for severe weather in Minnesota on Sunday appears to be near the South Dakota border in the late afternoon or evening. These risk areas will be updated, and possibly upgraded, as Sunday draws near.
