Sunday severe risk includes tornado threat

A quick update on severe potential for Sunday as you enjoy the weekend.

I am watching a growing potential for severe storms Sunday across central and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. There is risk for severe storms, and if conditions set up right there appears to be plenty of wind shear (spin) in the atmosphere to produce a few tornadoes Sunday afternoon into early evening.

Scattered storms will favor western Minnesota overnight, but new clusters of storms are likely to develop closer to the Twin Cities metro Sunday afternoon in an increasingly unstable air mass.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has elevated the risk zone for eastern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities) to "enhanced" for Sunday.

NOAA's GFS model is indicating a moderate potential for tornadoes in or close to the Twin Cities from central to eastern Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

Forecasting tornadoes 24 hours in advance is very difficult. It's just too early to be sure if and where they could develop. But the potential is there for Sunday afternoon and evening. It's probably the highest tornado risk in and near the Twin Cities I've seen so far this season. Plan accordingly Sunday.

Keep a high level of situational awareness Sunday if and when storms develop. Stay alert for watches and warnings, and be ready to activate severe weather safety plans if needed.