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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Thursday soaker, weekend severe risk

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Our weather pattern shows rapid changes the next few days. Dry day, wet day, dry day, severe risk.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

The next rainmaker plows into Minnesota Thursday. Showers grow in coverage as the day unfolds. Low pressure rides northeast into Minnesota with the rain shield Thursday.

513 5allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

Waves of rain move in from the southwest Thursday. Grab the umbrella, rain gear, the shoes without the holes in the soles. It's going to get wet Thursday.

513 ttt
NOAA NAM Model rainfall output via ModelWeather.com

Rainfall totals look decent again. Another widespread, drought-easing slow-soaker for most of Minnesota. Rainfall totals of half an inch look promising in southern Minnesota with this one.

513 mdp

We come up for air Friday before the next low pushes northeast this weekend. This weekend's low looks potent and slow moving. That should trigger multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is a distinct possibility in Minnesota this weekend.

513 wkd svr

Keep the weather radio tuned up, and keep it to MPR News stations (91.1 FM in metro) this weekend as possible watches and warnings fly.

This weekend also has the potential to produce some heavy, multi-inch rainfall totals in Minnesota.

513 7
NOAA

Keep in mind the models do a decent job with painting rainfall areas and trends, but summertime convection can produce localized deluges that can overwhelm local areas with a few inches of rain in just a few hours. With slow moving storms, this could be one of those weekends. Flash flood warnings are possible this weekend.

Tornado talk

I enjoyed the great turnout and stories Monday evening at The Old Log Theater as we revisited the 1965 Twin Cities tornado outbreak.

Mapping the 1965 outbreak

Jim du Bois at the Minnesota Broadcasters Association is spearheading a project that will map survivors' experiences during the 1965 outbreak. If you lived through the event that day, you can share your experience on the map here.

One question that comes up every time I talk about severe weather in public: do tornadoes avoid big cities? Does the urban heat island destroy tornadoes?

The easy answer is no. Tornadic supercell thunderstorms usually have a large enough circulation to plow right into densely populated metro areas.

Just ask people in Miami or Atlanta.

The reality is the footprint of urban areas as a percentage of the overall landscape is still relatively small. There's simply a higher statistical probability that  most tornadoes will touch down in open country. Keep that in mind next time tornado watches are issued for your city.