Thundery Thursday: Strong storms possible

It's a little like Weather Bingo.

We'll experience a patchwork quilt of scattered storms. Each cell delivers precious rain, but in total they may only cover about 60 percent of the landscape. I hope your number gets called.

Advancing low pressure rolls north Thursday. Minnesota rides the clammy, humid, showery air mass to the east of the low as it tracks north along the Red River Valley.

The good news about Thursday's system for droughty Minnesota? Rainfall looks a little more widespread than what we saw Wednesday. A few waves of showers and thunderstorms rumble across the state Thursday.

The last couple of forecast model runs are a little more bullish on the potential for a good soaking rain of a half-inch to 1 inch-plus for much of central Minnesota edging into the Twin Cities Thursday.

Here's the model rainfall output for the area from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System.

The past few systems have under-performed in coverage and rainfall totals compared to the model output going in. Thursday's system looks a little more likely to deliver some meaningful rainfall to a good chunk of Minnesota.

A few strong storms?

Thursday's atmosphere will be a bit unstable overhead. That should promote a few thunderstorms, and some of those could be strong. I don't think widespread severe weather is likely Thursday, but I can't rule out a borderline severe storm or two.

NOAA's convective outlook keeps the biggest severe threat south of Minnesota, with a marginal zone covering southern Minnesota just south of the metro. I won't be surprised if this gets bumped slightly north Thursday.

Mixed bag weekend

Looking ahead to this weekend it looks like a mixed weather bag for the fishing opener and Mother's Day. We stay mostly dry Friday and Saturday. The next system rides north Sunday with more showers and thunderstorms.