Spectacular Monday; rain returns this week

Welcome to another weather smorgasbord this week. There should be a little something for everyone.

Minnesota meteorologists' to-do lists get longer again later this week. We got on the board in a big way on the summer severe season with numerous hail and high wind reports in the metro Sunday.

We soak up the sun today, then watch as more showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast this week. The Twin Cities National Weather Service uses up its quota of rain and thunder symbols on this week's weather story.

After our spectacular Monday, clouds begin to gather tomorrow. "Chance" and "scattered" work back into the forecast, as Tuesday may be dry in many locations with spotty showers in others.

Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread and numerous Wednesday and Thursday as the low pressure system and tailing warm front work northward pumping moisture toward Minnesota.

Winter "stratiform" precipitation pattern often cover wide areas with relatively uniform totals. Not so much in summer. The nature of warm season precipitation is often a scattered patchwork.

The emphasis is on vertical, as stronger updraft towers focus more intense bursts of rainfall in smaller, more localized areas. Town A gets soaked, while town B waits for rain. That's the pattern again later this week as showers and T-storms move into the forecast. It won't rain all the time at your house, but several waves of rain roam Minnesota this week.

Here's the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts version of events.

The forecast is still in flux for next weekend's fishing opener Saturday and Mother's Day Sunday. The early read is for a drier Saturday with more rain and storms Sunday, but timing could change.

Stay tuned.

Tornado season in eight seconds

Yes eight seconds can change your life. Especially when it comes to a direct hit from a tornado.

Check out this animated graphic of tornado climatology during a "typical" tornado season. Storms march north and tornado frequency peaks in Minnesota in June.

Climate Central has an interesting look at how tornadoes migrate and some longer term trends.

Beyond year-to-year variability, changes appear to be afoot for the tornado season. For one, the peak of tornado season in Tornado Alley is coming a week early now compared to 60 years ago, according to recent research. The exact reason for the shift is unknown, though it’s possible climate change could be playing a role.

In addition to a shift in the peak of tornado season, research has also shown that major outbreaks of tornadoes arebecoming more common and that more tornadoes are occurring on those days.

This shift might have a stronger climate change connection. One of the leading hypotheses is that while warming throughout the atmosphere can make it more stable (bad news for tornadoes), it also means the atmosphere can hold more moisture (good news for tornadoes). That translates to a standoff on quiet days, but when moisture and instability break the gridlock, storms have more moisture at their disposal to ramp up and spawn more tornadoes.