Tuesday bluster; Illinois tornado’s long track
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Spring in Minnesota is like a twisted foxtrot. Two steps forward. One step back.
Our March relapse lasts another day today, as bitter winds and snow showers turn to rain over eastern Minnesota. It could be worse. Yes, weather fans, that's a fresh coating of light snow on the streets of Ely this morning.
Stratus Quo
Most of eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin still swirls under a vast gray wrap around stratus deck from a stalled Hudson Bay low. That means more snow showers in northern Minnesota. High pressure noses south tomorrow with a clearing trend.
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Yes, you'll reach for the winter jacket one more time today.
Here's a look at the persistent northwest wind flow pumping in another brisk day with wind chills in the 20s and 30s across Minnesota.
Our weather mellows as the week moves on. We start with more sun and less wind tomorrow.
Temps slowly moderate as the stronger late April sun works to modify the Canadian air mass overhead. The sun tomorrow is as high in the sky as it is on Aug. 20. The modified air mass should support 60 degrees by Sunday.
Long track Fairdale tornado
There have been a couple of tornado swarms this spring. Most notably the cluster that hit northern Illinois earlier this month. The Fairdale, Ill., tornado on April 9 was a "long track" tornado, on the ground for 39 miles and 41 minutes. It was a forecasting success story, with as much as an hour lead time on the tornado warning, and days on the risk zone for severe storms.
RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 200 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 30.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 700 YARDS
FATALITIES: 2
INJURIES: 22
START DATE:APRIL 09 2015
START TIME:6:39 PM CDT
START LOCATION:0.9 MILES NE FRANKLIN GROVE
START LAT/LON: 41.8530/-89.2896
END DATE:APRIL 09 2015
END TIME:7:20 PM CDT
END LOCATION:5 NNW KIRKLAND
END LAT/LON: 42.1623/-88.8792
THIS LONG TRACKED VIOLENT TORNADO DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND FARMSTEADS...AS WELL AS TOSSED VEHICLES...ALONG ITS PATH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTY ACROSS EASTERN OGLE...NORTHWEST DEKALB...INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY. THIS INCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST SIDE OF ROCHELLE...ACROSS INTERSTATE 39...AND DIRECTLY THROUGH FAIRDALE.
Minnesota: Edge of tornado alley
Many of our Minnesota tornadoes skip along the ground for just a few minutes, so it can be hard to get a warning out quickly.
We know Minnesota is not in the heart of tornado alley, but a study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center of long track EF3-EF5 tornadoes does show mini tornado frequency clusters within Minnesota.
Quiet severe season so far
In spite of the Illinois outbreak, this has thankfully been another quiet tornado season so far. At 137 so far, 2015 tornado numbers are still running well below the 10 years average.
Right now I don't see any severe potential on the horizon for Minnesota.
Stay tuned.