January thaw, weekend snow, arctic February opener
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According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group and University of Minnesota climatologist Mark Seeley, we get a January thaw 92 percent of all years in the Twin Cities. This year we get two. Maybe three.
Mild Pacific breezes blow again this weekend, and bank thermometers may flash 40 degrees in some Minnesota towns Friday afternoon. Yes, Minnesota rides the edge of another late March-like Pacific air mass this weekend. Green and yellow colors on the weather map in late January?
Here's a closer look at weekend temperatures and snowfall chances, which favor Saturday night and Sunday.
Saturday night clipper
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Saturday night's clipper track is still in question. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's models shifted the track east again late Thursday. That would take the bulk of the heavier accumulations from Minnesota's Iron Range through Duluth into Wisconsin.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' model is the western outlier and keeps significant accumulating snows in the Twin Cities metro area.
Stay tuned for potential track changes. This thing is not yet settled.
Mild next week, February arctic blast?
Another surge of Pacific air arrives next week. Temperatures may push 40 again next Wednesday.
The longer range Global Forecast System still hints at an arctic outbreak to open February.
Warm spring ahead?
NOAA's new seasonal outlooks hint at a warmer than average spring for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.
Could the two-year pattern of colder than average temperatures in Minnesota be about to end?