Weekend thaw, Monday night snow chances?

Gray...but milder

That's the trade off in winter in Minnesota. When it's cold it's usually sunny. Pining for December thaw? Plan on gray skies and fog.

Yes, the shortest days of the year are upon us. The good news? The days start getting longer a week from Monday after the winter solstice, which occurs at 5:03 p.m. on December 21.

It's hard to tell the difference between day and night these days. Friday marked the sixth consecutive cloudy day across most of Minnesota. Saturday and Sunday bring the seventh and eights. Our next real shots at sunshine? Tuesday and Wednesday.

I'm just your humble weather messenger.

The thermometer heads in the right direction this weekend for many Minnesotans. Personally I'd rather have hard fast ice for Friday night hockey. How high will it go? Your local bank thermometer will flash 40+ this weekend, and maybe 50 degrees by midday Sunday. What little snow you have left on on your lawn stealthily disappears this weekend.

A cool front brings us closer to December reality by Tuesday. I'm keeping one eye on a possible snow system trying to get organized by Monday evening as the colder air slides back into Minnesota and Wisconsin.

70 degrees — High temperature in Rapid City, South Dakota on Friday

Temperatures rise even during overnight hours this weekend. Warm fronts are like that. We spend the entire weekend above freezing from the Twin Cities south and west. Keep an eye out for those pesky icy spots on roads and underfoot in northern Minnesota where temperatures will hover near freezing at night this weekend.

The process we refer to as "warm advection" peaks Saturday night and Sunday. The European Model (ECMWF) has been leading the charge, cranking out 50 degrees in the metro by Sunday. The latest Global Forecast System runs finally agree.

Here's a more detailed look at the weekend from ECMWF model data.

Watching Monday evening snow chances

Our return to more typical December weather begins Monday. Two separate upper air waves attempt to come together, or phase, over the Midwest. If they are able to phase in time, that could increase snow chances for Minnesota and Wisconsin. If not, a period of light snow is still possible by late Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

Here's a look at the two lows: A weaker system along the Canadian border and a more powerful low in the southern Plains. Expect some light rain to snow Monday if the lows stay separated — much more if they come together.

The models will wrestle with this over the weekend. As of now, it appears a shot of snow should be on the lighter side Monday evening for the metro.

Return to December next week

Our December reality check resumes next week. After Monday's snow chance, seasonably colder air returns. The prospect of sunshine? What a concept.

Squeaking out a white Christmas?

Everyone I meet is asking these days, "Paul, is it going to be white by Christmas Day?"

The short answer at this point? Probably.

Jet stream trends favor a return to mostly sub-freezing air masses next week through Christmas. A couple of systems bear watching for snow potential between now and then. The first brushes us late Monday and in the longer range, the GFS teases with a potential snow maker just in time for Christmas Day.

The stats show 72 percent of all Christmas Days have at least 1 inch of snow cover in the Twin Cities — that's the definition of "white" for Christmas at our local NWS office. Our last brown Christmas? Just three years ago in 2011.

Nationally, the 50/50 line for a white Christmas runs from central Nebraska through Iowa to the northern suburbs of Chicago.

Squeaking out a white Christmas this year?

Stay tuned.