Sunday slush, thaw next week then colder
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Don't give up on a White Christmas just yet.
Next week's December thaw is still on track, but the latest indications on the medium range models show we may return to more average December temperatures after next weekend. No big shocker there.
In the meantime, the weekend looks pretty great for outdoor winter enthusiasts. How about a sunny Saturday and a shot of slushy snow Sunday?
Here's a more detailed weekend breakdown: Some sunshine Saturday with temperatures in the upper 20s — a classic December Saturday? A Clipper rides in Sunday with some light mixed precipitation trending toward snow. A slushy inch or so looks likely for the metro, with a couple of inches north.
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The weekend maps show seasonably cool dry high pressure overhead Saturday. Sunday's Clipper injects a burst of wintery precipitation that gains steam in the afternoon.
The Global Forecast System leans toward a slushy inch (give or take) around the metro, with a dose of heavier snow north. As much as 2 to 6 inches could fall in northern Minnesota by Monday night.
December thaw next week
It appears we are still on track for a significant December thaw by late next week. The GFS has backed off on the magnitude and duration of the potential thaw. That's not a huge surprise given the dramatic magnitude of the numbers in recent days. The latest European trends still send a very mild Pacific air mass gushing into the Upper Midwest starting next Thursday and lasting through next weekend. The European model shows a high around 50 degrees next weekend...with three nights above freezing.
Return to December
After next weekend's thaw we may not have much snow left across big chunks of Minnesota.
But there are signs that temperatures will return to more typical December levels by mid-month. It is still too early to give up on the notion of a white Christmas for much of Minnesota.
Here's the trends on Arctic Oscillation (AO) from NOAA. The short term positive phase AO links to milder temps. There are signs the AO may revert to neutral or even negative (colder) territory after mid-December.
The GFS is starting to hint at the notion of a possible rain or snow system over Minnesota by around December 15.
Historically, the odds of a white Christmas (at least 1 inch on the ground) are about 75 percent for the metro and closer to 100 percent north. There's still plenty of time after next weekend for a coating of winter white by December 25.
In the meantime, get set for some wild temperature swings over the next two weeks. I stick by my early November forecast of a roller coaster winter with "wildly average" winter temperatures. A wavy jet stream looks like it may undulate and bring some dramatic temperature swings this winter.
Stay tuned.