Changeable Thanksgiving weekend, hints of a mild December?

Happy Thanksgiving!

There is much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving weekend at the Weather Lab. Good health. The company of family and good friends. Abundance.

The coldest Thanksgiving in 29 years?

You had me at Happy Thanksgiving.

Our wild early winter season roller coaster ride continues through Thanksgiving weekend. Snow, cold, more snow and a thaw to close November?

Bring on December please.

• -7.8 degrees temperature vs. average at MSP Airport for November so far

• 8.1" November snowfall through Wednesday at MSP

• 9.3" average November snowfall

Pre-Thanksgiving clipper delivers

Wednesday's Clipper delivered as promised. A general range of 1" to 3" fell across the metro with 2.1" officially at MSP Airport. The system flared south of the metro, where some incredible 5" to 11" totals blanketed the area. Yes, it's  a white Thanksgiving for much of Minnesota.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

350 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS WEDNESDAY...

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME

------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------

11.00 FARIBAULT 8 W MN RICE 1230 PM

9.30 AMBOY MN BLUE EARTH 0318 PM

8.60 BLUE EARTH 1 S MN FARIBAULT 0312 PM

8.50 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0130 PM

8.40 EAGLE LAKE MN BLUE EARTH 0400 PM

8.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM

8.00 VERNON CENTER MN BLUE EARTH 0329 PM

7.50 LE CENTER MN LE SUEUR 0325 PM

7.50 MANKATO 3 NNE MN BLUE EARTH 0332 PM

7.00 MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1125 AM

7.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0329 PM

6.80 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0212 PM

6.00 MILROY MN REDWOOD 0700 AM

7.00 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0920 AM

6.00 WASECA MN WASECA 0302 PM

5.00 NEW ULM MN BROWN 0920 AM

Mark Seeley puts our latest shot of snow and a cold November into context in this week's Weather Talk.

Some observers reported record-setting snowfall amounts on November 26th.  Among these were: 6 inches at St. Peter and Amboy, 7 inches at Mapleton, 8 inches at Winnebago, 8.5 inches at Fairmont, and 11 inches at Faribault.  As the month of November comes to an end this weekend, a number of observers have received over 15 inches of snowfall for the month and most of the state's landscape rests under a blanket of snow.  With all of the snow, temperatures have averaged colder than normal for the month, ranging from 6 to 9 degrees below average. November will be the sixth month of 2014 to record significantly colder than normal temperatures.

Roller coaster ride continues

Get ready for more ups and downs in the next week. The stock market has been looking tame compared to our temperature swings lately.

December thaws ahead?

Meteorologists watch the upper air pattern around the Northern Hemisphere for clues to longer term weather. We call them "long waves." These dips in the jet stream tell us a lot about future weather in the next two weeks.

Early trends for December have hinted at more dramatic swings across Minnesota as the jet stream snakes and undulates overhead. My read of this pattern is that we may be setting the stage for a winter jet stream increasingly influenced developing El Nino in the tropical Pacific.

As we move forward into December, it appears we'll continue to alternate between polar plunges and periodic thaws. The magnitude and duration of upcoming thaws to be determined...but NOAA's Global Forecasting System model has cranked out some remarkably mild upper air charts on several runs in the past few days.

The GFS often leans colder than reality, so this is an eye catching trend. The chart above is probably overdone, but most runs favor a more zonal pacific flow that is very different from last winter's arctic onslaught. This suggest a milder December with periodic thaws possible.

Stay tuned.

Thanks for all your kind words and support of all things MPR Weather this year. I am indeed full of gratitude for such a supportive and knowledgeable weather audience.

Happy Thanksgiving!