Weekend thaw, cold Turkey Day but good travel
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It's amazing how Minnesotans can shift weather gears.
The winter mindset kicks in fast at this latitude. The transition from a glorious fall to wintry acceptance seemed like 24 hours this year.
It's almost a relief. No more pressure to get that last lazy stroll around the lake or final round of golf in. No hurry to get outside on a weeknight with bracing wind chills and icy roads. Hunker down. That's what we do best in Minnesota in winter.
This weekend you'll see some of your neighbors for the first time in two weeks. Depending on precisely when we go above freezing, our near record November sub-freezing streak ends at 11 or 12 days, just shy of the record of 15 days set in 1880.
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Yes, Twin Cities, when it comes to November cold snaps we're No. 2.
As the warm air invades aloft, an icy mix favors southeast Minnesota and may clip the southeast metro overnight into early Saturday morning.
Then, a Pacific breeze blows in a weekend thaw. Temps crack the thawing point by lunchtime Saturday and make a run for the 40s from the metro south and east by Sunday afternoon.
Here's the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts version of events this weekend. The European model is the most aggressive on the magnitude of Sunday's thaw, boosting metro temps into the 40s.
Monday storm: near miss or grazing?
The European model also shoves Monday's developing low pressure system far enough east that heavy snow is not forecast for the metro. The tightening pressure lines behind the system deliver a gusty and colder northwest wind and some light snow to Minnesota Monday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System favors some residual "upper low" snowfall as the system slides through Monday, with the potential for a couple of wind-driven inches at this point. Slick roads with blowing snow are likely Monday.
Good Thanksgiving travel week?
After Monday, most of the week looks good for Thanksgiving travel. The porch will be a definite option for storing/freezing those Thanksgiving Day beverages and leftovers.
Good travel weather? One more thing to be grateful for this Thanksgiving.