Metro rain to snow tonight, plowable up north
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Welcome to November in Minnesota. This is the month where temps can reach 70 degrees, or you may be digging out from a foot of snow.
In the same year.
Today's November weather menu features rain and or snow depending on where you are. For central Minnesota it is the first accumulating snow of the season. A stripe of 1 to 3 inches covers lawns and fields by later tonight.
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Latest Twin Cities radar loop
The snowy stripe extends into North Dakota as well.
And northern Wisconsin.
Here's the Alberta clipper system responsible for our first real snow for many Minnesotans this season. Low pressure slides east through the Great Lakes with a mix of rain and snow over the next 48 hours.
Rain mixes with, then changes to, snow this evening in the metro. A decent burst of wet snowflakes may leave a slushy coating in parts of the Twin Cities before the snow tapers later tonight. Warm ground will eat away at what snow falls overnight.
Coldest so far
No doubt about it, the trend on temps leans down the next few days. This will be the season's coldest air mass so far.
The upcoming weekend looks chilly but quiet.
Rumors of snow next Monday?
I could show you maps that suggest accumulating snow across southern Minnesota by next Monday. I won't insult your intelligence.
Forecasting snow five or six days out is basically the equivalent of meteorological malpractice.
The average error on low pressure tracks that far out is often over 100 miles, wider than most heavy snow bands. Temperature profiles within rain/snow systems are often not accurately forecast 24 to 48 hours ahead of time, let alone 5 days in advance. Hey readers, how about a 45-day forecast?
Suffice to say the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are hinting at the notion of low pressure somewhere in southern Minnesota next Monday.
Potential storm track and rain-snow lines to be determined. Expect future model runs to vary widely on possible storm tracks and snowfall potential.
One thing we can say with more confidence is that next week's air mass surging south is likely to be even colder than this week. Temps look to run a good 20 degrees below average next week.
Stay tuned.