Delightful afternoon, but changes on the way
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Late yesterday afternoon a cluster of light showers formed in western Minnesota. The light rain expanded east and persisted in the nighttime hours.
Alexandria tallied 0.18 inch, with nearly a quarter inch at Carlos. A sprinkling even occurred over the Twin Cities metro area.
It was quite cool overnight in far northern Minnesota, where International Falls recorded a low or 35 degrees. It dipped down to 36 at Crane Lake.
The mid-afternoon water vapor satellite image showed moisture gathering to our west and south.
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Clouds will thicken in southwest Minnesota overnight and in central Minnesota on Thursday morning. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to spread east and northeast Thursday morning into east central and southeast Minnesota.
Twenty-five years ago, the forecast would have called for rain, heavy at times in southeast Minnesota. The models weren't sophisticated enough, nor the meteorologists daring enough predict the amount of rain that might fall.
In this era, we boldly try to estimate the general amount of precipitation which may occur during a time period
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Here's the National Weather Service forecast for Rochester, Minnesota on Thursday:
Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 70. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
The computer models have been a bit inconsistent with the location and timing of the heaviest rain in east central Minnesota.
It has been particularly challenging to determine how much rain might fall around the Twin Cities. The computer models output, overlaid on this graphic, shows the disparity in timing and the accumulation of rainfall at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
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Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center are consistent in forecasting a couple of inches of rain in southeast Minnesota from 7 p.m. tonight to 7 p.m. Saturday. Much of the rain is expected to fall from mid morning Thursday to Friday morning.
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Meanwhile, the northern half of the state is looking stay mainly dry on Thursday.
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be scattered about the state on Friday. Saturday looks dry with comfortable temperatures.
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