Atlantic hurricane season churns slowly; peak nears

I was working for the National Weather Service at the time Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005. I remember saying to my wife as the storm was approaching New Orleans, "this has the potential to be a major disaster."

Anyone who was tracking the storm likely shared the same scary thought. Katrina was very well forecast by the National Hurricane Center, where experts warned federal officials the levees might not hold.  In 2006, CNN reported:

During video conferences involving the president on August 28 and August 29, NHC director Max Mayfield expressed concern that Katrina might push its storm surge over the city's levees and flood walls. In one conference, he stated, "I do not think anyone can tell you with confidence right now whether the levees will be topped or not, but that's obviously a very, very great concern."

Tropical storm climatology supports that we are drawing close to the peak season.

So far this season there have been three named tropical storms in the Atlantic. Hurricane  Cristobal  is churning out to sea.

Earlier this month the National Hurricane Center updated its seasonal hurricane outlook. The hurricane center's update predicts a 70 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 5 percent chance of an above-normal season.

The probabilities in the initial outlook issued on May 22 were 50 percent, 40 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Later this afternoon I'll have an update on the heavy rain threat for southeast Minnesota.

Enjoy this rather delightful Wednesday afternoon.