Changeable skies, TS Cristoabl in Gulf next week?
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Mixed weather fare
Our weather forecast the next few days looks a lot like food choices at the Minnesota State Fair. A new menu item is only a few minutes away.
Over the next 72 hours Minnesota savors a weather smorgasbord. Our buffet features fog, sun, thunder, rain and tropical humidity. Throw in a September breezes for next week?
Why not?
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Storm track returns
It was a (welcome?) dry run from mid-July to mid-August. Many areas of southern Minnesota saw less than half an inch of rainfall over a five-week period. The storm track has returned to Minnesota, with more frequent rain-bearing low pressure systems and fronts sweeping through in the next two weeks.
Here's the latest set of short term maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with our next warm front due in to fire another line of thunderstorms across Minnesota by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Summer-on-a-stick
As the warm front moves by Thursday morning, scattered thunderstorms give way to a steamy tropical air mass. Dew points soar into the sweaty 70s Thursday, and if we get any sun at all it will turn opening day at the 2014 Minnesota State fair into a free sauna.
Highs in the upper 80s Thursday and Friday with a shot at 90 should be all the summer you can handle the first two days of the fair.
September breeze next week
I kind of expected the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to back off the intensity of next week's chilly solution. That happened in the afternoon model run.
It still looks noticeably cooler next week with highs in the 70s and a much drier air mass with dew points int he 40s and 50s. Tuesday morning should be the coolest, when morning lows could dip into the upper 40s in the Twin Cities metro area.
Tropical trouble brewing: Cristobal forming in the Atlantic?
It's been another quiet Atlantic hurricane season with only 2 named storms so far. An area of disturbed weather shows signs of organizing in the next 48 hours, and Tropical Storm Cristobal could be the result. NOAA's National Hurricane Center gives Cristobal a 30 percent shot at this point in time.
Here's the five-day outlook, which suggests a potential pat toward the Gulf of Mexico.
The Euro is not bullish on development with 96L, but some of the models are cranking what would be Cristobal into a major hurricane.
Stay tuned.