Emerging flash flood threat early next week?

Let's start with the good weather news. I am happy to report we enjoy blissfully warm and dry summer weather for the rest of this week. The short term benefits? Soggy farm fields can dry a little more, swollen lakes and rivers can ease up a bit, and all of us can bake in some welcome warm late May sunshine.

Maybe we'll even melt a few more late season icebergs on Lake Superior?

Cutting to the forecast chase, here's the quick outlook for the rest of the week.

Where's the nearest beach?

Our Chamber of Commerce forecast lasts into at least early Saturday. That's when a slow moving frontal system edges toward western Minnesota, sparking scattered showers and storms. Her's the 48 hour surface forecast map loop from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

By Sunday (June 1) it looks like the June Monsoon may be visiting Minnesota this year, as a soggy warm front bubbles north. Here's the Global Forecast System notion low pressure in South Dakota and heavy rainfall "bull's eye's" over Minnesota by Monday.

Slow moving warm fronts in June are notorious for dumping heavy rainfall totals in the Upper Midwest. It's almost impossible to gauge the precise locations and magnitude of multi-inch rainfall days in advance like this, but the general synoptic set up looks favorable for some gully washers Sunday and Monday.

The latest NOAA 7-day rainfall output gives you the idea. The potential is there for some rainfall of 3 to 4 inches or more Sunday and Monday.

Here's the GFS rainfall forecast for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Again, just a loose estimate that indicates the potential for heavy rains.

Weather Tip: Time to check and clean the Weather Lab gutters and downspouts once again.