‘Cutoff low’ gradually moves out, sun returns; 60s to 70 by next week?
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"Can you just drive me to the airport?"
You know Minnesota weather has been bad way too long when your wonderful wife, who has spent the better part of her life living in warmer climates, asks the question in desperation this week.
Yes, even many hearty Minnesotans have had enough. Enough cold. Enough snow. Enough rain. Enough gray.
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Enough.
Honestly? I've had about enough too. Yes, this challenging stretch of weather the past few months has been "good for business" in the Weather Lab. Now, I am craving sunny warmer days as much as anyone else.
We won't have to wait much longer. But first we need to kick out this stubborn cutoff low in the next 48 hours. That happens with gradual drying and warming into the weekend.
Flirting with the wettest April on record
We pride ourselves on being "above average" or near the top in Minnesota. I'm not sure we want this record, but we'll make a run today and probably fall just short before the calendar strikes May at midnight.
As of this morning we're sitting at 6.24 inches of precipitation in April. That's still good enough for the second wettest April on record.
Here are the numbers as of yesterday from the Twin Cities National Weather Service:
Wetter springs: blip or trend?
Notice that the top seven wettest Aprils have all occurred since 1975, and four of the top seven have occurred in the past 13 years. That fits with observed climate changes in Minnesota, notably an increase in "early warm season" precipitation.
It's not your imagination. Our springs are getting wetter, and as late summer and fall appear to be getting drier. Another "flash drought" ahead this year?
Stay tuned.
Metro soaker
The Twin Cities has been in the sweet spot for rainfall with this system.
High water
All that rain has lakes and rivers running high. Water is lapping at the boat docks near Lake Minnetonka's Deephaven Beach.
The dam at Gray's Bay is open now, and Lake Minnetonka is more than a foot higher than last fall, according to data from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District.
The good news? As the upper low finally kicks out in the next 48 hours, rainfall intensity eases. We'll be counting up tenths instead of inches through tomorrow.
Notice how rainfall flatlines Saturday and Sunday. A mostly dry weekend? What a concept.
The biggest rainfall shifts east with the departing low the next few days.
This widespread system has produced torrential 3 to 5 inch rains in Minnesota and widespread 3 inch-plus totals in the Mississippi Valley.
Here's the seven-day rainfall analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor should show a noticeable reduction in orange.
Improving forecast
The weather maps are finally stating to shake loose. Our pesky cutoff low gets booted east the next 48 hours.
A weak cool front may trigger some spotty showers Friday into Saturday morning, but the trends are for drier and potentially sunnier skies this weekend. Temps should rebound into the 50s to near 60 degrees in the Twin Cities by Sunday afternoon.
Much warmer next week
Now for the shocking weather news.
All signs point to significantly milder weather next week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the most aggressive and cranks out an improbable 80 degrees by next Thursday.
At this point I'd lean more toward NOAA's Global Forecast System, which suggests a string of temps in the 60s, with 70s possible next Wednesday and lingering many days in the next two weeks.
The warm up comes with more rain and scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may creep into our forecast next week.
Stay tuned!