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Capitol View®
Brett Neely

Democratic super PAC reserves nearly $700K of ad time to defend Nolan, attack Kline

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WASHINGTON - So far, Minnesota's airwaves have mostly been devoid of campaign ads. But a Democratic super PAC is making big plans for the state this fall, reserving nearly $700,000 worth of TV advertising to prop up 8th District DFL Rep. Rick Nolan and attack 2nd District Republican Rep. John Kline.

It's part of $6.5 million nationwide reservation made by the House Majority PAC, a group that has close ties to Democratic leaders in the U.S. House.

“We are making wise investments in those districts where we expect we will need to counter negative attacks in the final weeks of the campaign," said the group's executive director, Alixandria Lapp, in a statement.

One big caveat about ad reservations: groups such as House Majority PAC use them to lock in lower ad rates months out, but also to send public signals to party committees about how to allocate resources because super PACs and political parties aren't supposed to coordinate their actions. And the money may never get spent on a race if polling shows the group's favored candidate far ahead or behind closer to the fall.

The super PAC's $354,000 reservation in Nolan's 8th District comes as little surprise. It's expected to be the most competitive House race in Minnesota this fall as Nolan defends the seat against Republican political newcomer Stewart Mills. Until this week's most recent fundraising numbers, Nolan's fundraising had lagged Mills and the two remain closely matched financially. The House Majority PAC is already on very familiar territory in the 8th District. The group spent nearly $1.5 million on ads that helped Nolan defeat one-term Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack in 2012. Political oddsmakers rate the race as leaning in Nolan's favor.

The group also reserved $329,000 worth of ads in the 2nd District. Ever since redistricting moved DFL-friendly territory into the district represented by Kline, who's seeking a seventh term, Democrats have sought to make the 2nd more competitive. But the front-runner for the DFL endorsement, 2012 candidate Mike Obermueller, has a steep financial disadvantage with $238,000 on hand compared to Kline's $1.66 million. The group also spent $74,000 on ads against Kline in 2012. The Rothenberg Political Report recently downgraded Democrats' prospects in the 2nd and said is likely Kline safe this election cycle.