Winter storm rolls into Minnesota; 2 to 6 inches likely for metro tonight

Counting inches

Our favorite winter pastime is back. Counting snowfall inches is one way Minnesotans get through our (too?) long winters. Several more inches today and tonight will keep your snow ruler busy.

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• Winter storm warnings are up for much of central Minnesota

• Winter weather advisory includes the Twin Cities metro

• Early Minnesota snowfall totals include 5 inches in Carlos, near Alexandria, 4 inches in Hinckley, Little Falls and Finlayson.

Finicky system

This late winter storm has flopped around more than most. Major model inconsistencies have narrowed, but this has been a far from easy storm to get a handle on.

The golf analogy for this one feels like "grip it and rip it." Just relax, take your best swing and hope it goes in the right direction.

Here's a look at the latest storm track trends. The surface low now trends toward Chicago tonight. Click on the map below to animate.

The headline? Expect snow and wintry weather conditions across a good chunk of Minnesota through tonight.

Here are a few key weather bullet points on the incoming system.

• Moderate to heavy snow band favors zone between the Twin Cities and Duluth today including St. Cloud.

• Morning snowy mix favors western and northern metro (This band of snow may lift just north of the bulk of metro by midday)

• Main wave of precipitation moves from southwest Minnesota this afternoon.

• Rainy/wintry mix approaches  metro by around 3 p.m. and should change to all snow by late afternoon

• Potential for a 3 to 6 hour heavy burst of snow late afternoon into this evening could affect the afternoon rush and evening travel

• Snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches still look likely in a Minnesota zone from Morris through Willmar, Alexandria, St. Cloud, Mille Lacs, Hinckley south side of Duluth into northwest Wisconsin

• Twin Cities likely snowfall range between 2 and 6 inches-plus by tomorrow morning.

• The north metro may see some heavier totals in excess of 8 inches with this system.

• Most of the snow in the central, south and east metro will fall between 6 p.m. this evening and 6 a.m. tomorrow morning.

• Snow tapers off from west to east between about 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. around the metro and eastern Minnesota.

Here's a look at timing the snow from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System overnight run seems like a pretty good idea of snowfall totals give or take a couple of inches. There could be a big snowfall range across the metro with less south and more north.

Bottom line: Expect winter storm conditions in central Minnesota today, and especially tonight in the metro.