Stay Curious. Stay Connected.
MailNewsletters♡Donate Now
Sign up
*Password must be at least 8 characters and contain one uppercase letter, one lowercase letter, one number and one symbol.
Already have an account?
By submitting, you consent that you are at least 18 years of age and to receive information about MPR's or APMG entities' programs and offerings. The personally identifying information you provide will not be sold, shared, or used for purposes other than to communicate with you about MPR, APMG entities, and its sponsors. You may opt-out at any time clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of any email communication. View our Privacy Policy.
Sign in to your profile
Forgot Password?
New to MPR News?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Reset Password

Enter the username on file and we'll send you a code to reset your password.

Still require assistance or not sure what your User Name is?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Email Verification

A verification code has been emailed to

Still awaiting the code?
NewsCut
Bob Collins

The inexact science meets the inaccurate expectation

Go Deeper.

Create an account or log in to save stories.

Log inCreate a free Account

Like this?

Thanks for liking this story! We have added it to a list of your favorite stories.

Show me!

I've written in the past about how most economic news seems to revolve around a basic fact that experts got something wrong. They do so with alarming frequency.

If the market collapses today, it's because someone's earnings didn't meet expectations. When the unemployment rate is news, is when it is above or below what was expected. Maybe the problem is the expertise.

In the age of the talking head, news organizations do us no favors by framing stories around things that might happen, but usually don't.

Today provides a perfect example:

Remember how the economy was sinking during the summer and we might end up in another recession?

Today, there's this classic first paragraph of a story from the Associated Press:

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate from July through September, much faster than first thought.

A swing and a miss. But don't let that stop you, AP...

The strength is expected to fade in the final months of the year because of the impact of Superstorm Sandy and uncertainty about looming tax increases and government spending cuts.

Today, according to an AP story on the MPR website, there is also disappointment over November retail sales. The experts got their hopes up because of the reports of gargantuan crowds at after-Thanksgiving sales.

The disappointing November sales releases dampened the enthusiasm fueled after reports of strong spending over the Thanksgiving weekend. A record 247 million shoppers visited stores and websites over the four-day weekend starting Thanksgiving, up 9.2 percent of last year, according to a survey of 4,000 shoppers that was conducted by research firm BIGinsight for The National Retail Federation trade group. Americans spent more too: The average holiday shopper spent $423 over the entire weekend, up from $398. Total spending over the four-day weekend totaled $59.1 billion, up 12.8 percent from 2011.

But as Barry Ritholtz at Big Picture noted yesterday -- and I forwarded on 5x8 yesterday -- the yardstick the enthusiasm was based on is a bogus marketing gimmick which the economic reporters ignore for the sake of a story.

It is my assumption that the NRF propaganda is an attempt to create an environment of social pressure: EVERYONE is shopping, so you better get out there and shop too! Only one hopes the media would do a better job of checking that. Only they don't. The media's job should be to inform -- not MISINFORM -- their readership. On Black Friday reporting, they are failing miserably.

Economics, they say, is the inexact science. It's often also the inaccurate story.