Is exurban sprawl dead?

As part of their Exurban Change Program, the Economics department at Ohio State University completed a study last fall whose goal was to determine whether current economic climate impacts -- the housing crash, high gas prices and increasing levels of unemployment -- would have a lasting effect on suburban and exurban sprawl both in Ohio and across the country.

In essence, they were asking a question that hits at the heart of Baldwin Township and other places like it around the Twin Cities: Is sprawl dead?

Their presentation concludes that "unfettered sprawl is a thing of the past (largely due to changing markets and emerging government policies)," but new kinds of more specialized sprawl may emerge, such as something they call "rurbia," or rural suburbia.

They cite a variety of reasons why they see sprawl changing.

As the demographics of households in the U.S. continues to shift from those with children -- 69% in 1990 (U.S. census records) -- to those without children -- 60% in 2008 -- the priorities of home-buyers begin to change.

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This analysis of the 2000 census shows a clear shift: over 80% of downtown city populations are composed of non-families and families without children while the same demographic groups make up just over 60% of the suburbs. This shift to cities will reduce demand for exurban development.

However, other factors will continue to increase demand, the researchers found.

High gas prices have recently slowed exurban development, but improvements in fuel efficiency and public transport, as well as technology improvements that make working remotely possible, will create opportunities for people to live further from cities in the future, the researchers say.

It is possible that companies will begin to create clusters of suburban or exurban remote work-sites as technology improvements continue.

One of the biggest factors slowing, or even stalling, sprawl is an oversupply of houses. The Ohio researchers pointed out that according to a USA Today article in April 2009, 1 in 9 houses in the U.S. were vacant. Situations like this mean less household-mobility, a lower demand for new housing and a long-term decline in new builds, which will limit sprawl.

They also cite that there are new demands for undeveloped land competing with housing development such as energy-production (wind, solar, biofuels), increased demand for local food and carbon or nutrient trading.

How will these ideas affect Baldwin?

Baldwin's proximity to both the Twin Cities and St. Cloud areas coupled with its rural character suggest that it will continue to be an attractive place for people to settle. But the stalled developments and empty homes Ohio researchers were describing are familiar to Baldwin, as are the commuting issues. Perhaps the Ohio researchers are right that it is specialized developments, such as agriburbia or other concept-developments, that will be the new hallmark of exurban sprawl.

What do you think, is sprawl dead or simply dormant? How do you think Baldwin will build up again?

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