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MinnEcon Blog
Paul Tosto

Minnesota’s economy: not roaring back in 2010

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Nothing like a little holiday gloom for the new year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis today published its district outlook for 2010. Job-wise, things are looking up if you live in the Dakotas and Montana.

The message for Minnesota and western Wisconsin? Not so good.

The Fed expects no employment growth in Minnesota during 2010 and only a slight increase in western Wisconsin.

We've been told before that 2010 will not be great . The Fed data, though, really hammers home the idea that the jobs recovery will be showing up later here than in other states.

Check out the data here, especially .pdf page 14.

"UP" is Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

It looks like 2010 is going to be an economic holding pattern. Minnesota's unemployment rate will hover just under 8 percent during the year, according to the Fed analysis.

Across the Minneapolis Fed's territory, we'll see some some small wage growth and stable prices. "New orders and production are expected to grow in 2010, but employment and capital investment will remain flat," the Fed said.

But unless something changes, it's going to be a tough jobs climate next year in Minnesota, which means it may be 2011 before it stops looking like a recession from where you're standing.

Is my take too gloomy? Check out the report and slides and tell me what you see. Post below or contact me directly.

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"I'll believe the recession's over..." or "I'm feeling a recovery now because..."

Finish one of those sentences and help us understand where you think the Minnesota economy's headed.

And click on the map icons below to read what sources in our Network have been telling us about the jobs climate around them.