Damaging winds, large hail and strong tornadoes in play for Monday evening

[MUSIC PLAYING] NINA MOINI: Severe weather is our top story today. Another round of storms is expected to move across the upper Midwest this afternoon. It could bring destructive winds, large hail, and strong tornadoes to Central and Southeastern Minnesota. We mentioned that does include the Twin Cities Metro. Now, the National Weather Service has put this region at a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe weather, with other parts of the state at a level 3 risk. So joining me now to explain all of that is meteorologist Mandy Thalhuber. Thanks for being with us, Mandy. I know you've been keeping busy.

MANDY THALHUBER: Yeah, absolutely, Nina. I'm glad to be here. Whatever we can do to get the word out to the public is my number one priority at this time.

NINA MOINI: Absolutely. Would you start with the first round that sort of came in through this morning? What were you seeing there?

MANDY THALHUBER: Yeah. So the first round of storms kind of moved through the metro between 8:30 and 9:30 this morning. We didn't have any severe warnings on this line of storms. However, we did have a few reports of some quarter-inch sized hail reported in Columbia Heights. North Loop Minneapolis also reported quarter-inch size hail, and even three-quarters of an inch hail report in Hutchinson, so anywhere between pea to penny size hail was reported with those storms. No wind gusts, or at least damaging wind gusts. But did see a decent amount of rainfall fall for mainly the northern metro with this first system, Nina.

NINA MOINI: Right. And in the introduction, I mentioned the different levels-- level 3, level 4, and what that sort of means. Can you break that down for us?

MANDY THALHUBER: Yes. So the Storm Prediction Center is the one that issues these risk categories. And a large majority of Minnesota, especially Central, Southern, and Southeastern Minnesota, is under a moderate risk. And then an enhanced risk, which is the level 3 out of 4, is for other parts of the state.

What that means is it doesn't mean widespread severe weather. I know that's the first thing people like to think about, is we're just going to have a widespread storm system. No. What this means is any storms that do develop, they have a high likelihood of becoming very severe. And that's what the moderate risk means.

NINA MOINI: OK, thank you for breaking that down. That makes sense. When are you expecting the severe weather to really hit?

MANDY THALHUBER: Yeah, so right now, we're in the calm of the storm. We're in the lull between the morning convection and what to expect this afternoon. This is the time where the atmosphere is allowed to recharge itself. So we're looking at this time for storm initiation to be anywhere between as early as 1:00 and 3:00. Now, the storms should start out in Western, Southwestern Minnesota. And these storms are going to progress eastward. As these storms develop into a line of storms, that's when we could start to see those hazards.

NINA MOINI: And when you talk about severe weather and all the different things that could look like, what are you thinking that people should be concerned about and preparing for?

MANDY THALHUBER: So we have two different types of storms that we could worry about. The line of storms that develop, those are the bow echoes that we normally see. Those typically have the stronger, more damaging winds, large hail. Those type of storms can produce brief spin up tornadoes. Those are the smaller tornadoes that are associated with a line.

What we're mostly concerned and why we have this moderate risk is we're concerned about those smaller, even discrete, individual supercells that could develop. It's those systems that could produce those strong, damaging tornadoes. And that is why the moderate risk is issued is because of the potential for those supercell thunderstorms to develop.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, so again, a good day for people to be really tuning in and paying attention, paying attention to after school things that could be canceled, things like that. But if people have not really been thinking about a severe weather plan, Mandy, today is probably the day to try to put one together as best people can. What do you suggest?

MANDY THALHUBER: So my suggestion is if you're going to be out and about, if you have to travel, know what county you're going to be in. That happens to be a huge one. When people are driving, they don't know what county they're in. And if a warning gets issued, they need to know what county they're going to be in.

Make sure your phones are charged. Make sure you're checking your weather app and then also tuning into the radio, because, obviously, we're going to give you the latest information on any storms that do develop. And then, of course, having a plan-- making sure that you know where to go wherever you are. If you're visiting the veterinarian's office, if your kids are at school, they know what safe places to go. And make sure you know where that is in the place that you live. And then just have a couple of supplies available-- some water bottles, again, charged phones, sturdy shoes. Things like that can make a huge difference if severe weather strikes.

NINA MOINI: Mandy, thank you so much.

MANDY THALHUBER: Thank you.

NINA MOINI: That's Mandy Thalhuber, meteorologist for MPR News. Again, we're going to be having regular updates on the storm throughout the day. Chief meteorologist Paul Huttner will have the latest on All Things Considered this afternoon, which begins at 3:00. And, of course, at any time, you can check out our website for the very latest, mprnews.org.