A spring weather update, just in time for April showers

NINA MOINI: Well, I hope everyone is really getting to enjoy some of the nice spring weather we've been having. But it does look like we're going to be getting some wetter weather again soon. So here to talk about how the spring is shaping up so far is MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks for being here, as always, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh my pleasure, Nina. And yeah, you got to pick your nice days out there like today, because we get those rainy episodes coming through. That's spring in Minnesota.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, absolutely. It's so nice when the sun does peek out, though, especially for weekends. But I am curious about just with the ups and downs and all the weather. What is going on with ice out across the state? Are most places iced out?

PAUL HUTTNER: It's moving north, a sign of the spring season. Here we see our 10,000-plus lakes lose their ice for that summer season. And it's progressing through Central Minnesota now, even as far north as Brainerd lakes area.

For example, North Long is a pretty popular Lake up there. The ice went out on April 14. That's about four days early. You get to Lizzie Lake, south of Detroit Lakes, April 10. That's about 13 days early.

And just today I checked, just south of Bemidji, now that far north, smaller lakes like Minnie and Twenty went out to April 14. That's about a week early, Nina. So our ice out overall about one to two weeks early around Minnesota, and it's progressing all the way into central and north central Minnesota on the smaller lakes. It'll move through northern Minnesota in the next couple two, three weeks.

NINA MOINI: OK. And so we did have a really nice day. But we do have some rain in the forecast. it looks like. What are you tracking?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we do. Tomorrow looks bumpy, beautiful out there today, a classic spring day. We'll hit the 60s in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, mainly 50s up north.

But then tomorrow, a little low pressure system, going to be a little bumpy. Some thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon west of the Twin Cities, I think, and then move in here late afternoon. It could be between about 4:00 and 6:00 PM, 7:00 PM tomorrow night, some thunderstorms.

And we do have a marginal risk that one or two of those could be severe and contain some hail, maybe some gusty winds. So here we go. Keep your eye out late tomorrow afternoon, Nina, 67 for the high in the Twin Cities before those storms come in late in the afternoon. And that marginal risk includes the Twin Cities, Eau Claire, slight risk, a little higher risk southern Minnesota, Mankato down to Rochester. So one of our first severe weather potentials tomorrow.

NINA MOINI: Oh, OK. I was talking to a lady yesterday at the store who was, well, we need the rain. We need the rain. But I wonder if are these events kind of enough to make a dent in the drought or just kind of happening?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, yes. So we've already dialed back the drought in much of Minnesota, a category or two. There is still drought in parts of Minnesota. Southern Minnesota and northern Iowa needs rain. So do areas up north.

And the European model, we're in a stormy pattern now. It looks like we're going to get a rain system coming through every maybe three to four days and over the next 10 days or so to two weeks, the European model cranking out anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain across much of Minnesota. So some of these areas are going to get some more rain, and it should help dial back the drought a little bit here as we head into the spring planting season.

NINA MOINI: What's kind of your summary of spring so far? Is it pretty normal, pretty on average?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, well March was milder. But we're around average here in April. And it's really a good thing that we're starting to get these rain systems in because it is helping to ease the drought.

There's another thing that's happening this time of year that I love that's super important. And that's that our lakes, when they start to see the ice go out, like we talked about, they turn over. And that means that all this oxygen that's up at the surface can mix down.

Now, one of the interesting physical properties of water is that it's densest and heaviest at 39 degrees. So even though the top of the lake is frozen, all that water sits down at the bottom all winter, and it kind of loses its oxygen. Well, when the surface reaches 39 degrees and we get these big winds, the lake mixes, and that fresh oxygen water can mix down to a depth.

That, of course, is great for our fish and all the plant life in there. And that's happening this time of year now, on these windy days. We're refreshing our lakes as we head into summer with fresh oxygen.

NINA MOINI: Oh, that sounds nice. So lastly, I do want to know about what is on Climate Cast this week.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we'll talk with Wisconsin author Tamer Dean. She's been on a quest to build a sustainable lifestyle, and she's got interesting perspectives on climate change and being a citizen scientist, so an interesting essay from our neighbors to the east in Wisconsin tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.

NINA MOINI: Love Climate Cast. Thank you so much, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Appreciate it. Thanks, Nina.

NINA MOINI: That was MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.