After dangerously cold temperatures, statewide thaw on the horizon
Ice-covered rocks glisten under the golden light as steam rises from the surface of Lake Superior at Kelsey Beach on Monday in Two Harbors, Minn. The frigid temperatures created a striking winter landscape along the shoreline.
Kerem Yucel | MPR News
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Minnesota has been sitting in a deep freeze for weeks now, but a major warm up is on the way.
MPR Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard joins MPR News host Nina Moini with details on the forecast.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: Well, we all know that we've been sitting in a deep freeze for weeks now across the state. But a big warm-up is on the way. Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard joins us now with the forecast. Thanks for being here, Sven.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Absolutely Nina. I want to talk about some of these subzero nights we've had because it's a rare occasion where we are actually above normal on the number of nights below 0 in the Twin Cities. That is not something we've typically done in recent decades. This morning was our 26th night--
NINA MOINI: Oh, Wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: --or morning low subzero. Now, normal to date is about 18. So this is about 1 and 1/2 times the 1991 to 2020 average. That's what we consider normal. That's the current 30-year normal we use.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Now, 50 years ago, the average was 31. So we're still behind that, just to remind people how much we actually had winter just several decades ago. And despite the subzero nights, we are just 8/10 of a degree below normal for the winter average so far. And that's 2 to 3 degrees above the historic winter average.
So compared to winters 50 or 100 years ago, we are still way above normal, believe it or not. But what's been balancing it out is in between these cold snaps has been that record warmth. We had those days in the 50s, remember, at the end of January. I know it seems like ancient history now and then we're headed back to some very mild weather. So it all kind of balances out.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, those January thaws, so much strange stuff happening. And so we've had all this cold, but not a whole lot of snow. So what do you think about that?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, the snow deficits just are still incredible. We are in a snow drought. Rochester, 2 feet behind for seasonal snowfall.
NINA MOINI: Oh, wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, Twin Cities, 20 inches behind, Duluth, which should be the snow Mecca, 22 inches behind. International Falls is a foot and a half behind, Southwestern Minnesota, almost a foot and a half behind. St. Cloud is one of the few spots-- it's only 5 inches behind. And deep into the Arrowhead, up around Grand Portage, is one of the few spots that's actually right near normal snowfall.
And for the current snow pack, we've got about 2 feet along the higher terrain of the North Shore. But that's even below normal for them, about 8 to 12 inches for the rest of Northeastern Minnesota. Duluth is seeing about a foot, but that's below the average, which should be about 15 inches this time of year.
Twin Cities, believe it or not, is actually right on target for February 19. Our average snow depth should be 4 inches. We've got 4 inches, thanks to those couple of recent snowfalls. But it's probably not going to last real long.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, so what are you tracking for the rest of today and the week ahead?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, major warm-up. We're up to 3 now in the Twin Cities, above 0, still pretty cold in parts of Western Minnesota, though-- 8 below in Fergus Falls, 2 below in Alexandria. Those are two places that probably won't get above 0 today. But Ely is a degree above, Duluth's 4 degrees above 0.
And those wind chills are anywhere from-- about 12 below 0 is the warmer spot, Twin Cities, to 28 below 0. And it's not going to be quite as cold today into tonight. We should see more single-digit highs. We're already above that right now.
Some snow showers in Northeastern Minnesota, could see up to an inch, Duluth, the North Shore, parts of the Arrowhead, and a little bit of increased cloud cover there. And those wind chills, again, mostly in the 10s and 20s here, below 0 for the rest of the afternoon.
NINA MOINI: All right. And then the big moment, the warm-up-- when is that coming, finally?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we can call it a heat wave by relative standards. Back into the single digits, below 0 tonight. But that's some progress to around 3 below in the Twin Cities. It was 10 below 0, for reference, early this morning. So that's some progress.
10s tomorrow, the sunshine is back statewide. That'll feel pretty nice. But then close to 20 on Friday. And then it gets even warmer, 30s on Saturday. I think will be above freezing for most of the state. We will see a little more cloud cover over the weekend.
And then, by Sunday, we're talking low to mid-40s across the southern half of the state, 30s to the north. And I do think Southwestern Minnesota, at least, on Monday and Tuesday, will hit 50 or warmer. It's even possible--
NINA MOINI: Wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: --we do it in the Twin Cities. Now, that'll be a 70-degree swing from temperatures yesterday morning--
NINA MOINI: [LAUGHS]
SVEN SUNDGAARD: --from what we'll see on Tuesday. And then we will see a couple clipper systems come through, looks like maybe some snow showers for Northern Minnesota Sunday and Monday. But further south, Central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, we're looking at probably light rain on Monday. Some models give us about a tenth of an inch of just light rain Monday into Monday night.
So that 4 inches of snow cover we have, Nina, after several days in the 40s at least next week, in fact, all of next week looks above freezing. It's going to be gone. So it wasn't that long ago, two, three weeks ago we had bare ground. We are probably going to be back into that bare ground territory.
NINA MOINI: It's a roller coaster. Thanks for keeping us up to speed, Sven.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Absolutely. Enjoy the last day or two of cold weather.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, hang in everybody. Thanks to MPR News Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Absolutely Nina. I want to talk about some of these subzero nights we've had because it's a rare occasion where we are actually above normal on the number of nights below 0 in the Twin Cities. That is not something we've typically done in recent decades. This morning was our 26th night--
NINA MOINI: Oh, Wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: --or morning low subzero. Now, normal to date is about 18. So this is about 1 and 1/2 times the 1991 to 2020 average. That's what we consider normal. That's the current 30-year normal we use.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Now, 50 years ago, the average was 31. So we're still behind that, just to remind people how much we actually had winter just several decades ago. And despite the subzero nights, we are just 8/10 of a degree below normal for the winter average so far. And that's 2 to 3 degrees above the historic winter average.
So compared to winters 50 or 100 years ago, we are still way above normal, believe it or not. But what's been balancing it out is in between these cold snaps has been that record warmth. We had those days in the 50s, remember, at the end of January. I know it seems like ancient history now and then we're headed back to some very mild weather. So it all kind of balances out.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, those January thaws, so much strange stuff happening. And so we've had all this cold, but not a whole lot of snow. So what do you think about that?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, the snow deficits just are still incredible. We are in a snow drought. Rochester, 2 feet behind for seasonal snowfall.
NINA MOINI: Oh, wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, Twin Cities, 20 inches behind, Duluth, which should be the snow Mecca, 22 inches behind. International Falls is a foot and a half behind, Southwestern Minnesota, almost a foot and a half behind. St. Cloud is one of the few spots-- it's only 5 inches behind. And deep into the Arrowhead, up around Grand Portage, is one of the few spots that's actually right near normal snowfall.
And for the current snow pack, we've got about 2 feet along the higher terrain of the North Shore. But that's even below normal for them, about 8 to 12 inches for the rest of Northeastern Minnesota. Duluth is seeing about a foot, but that's below the average, which should be about 15 inches this time of year.
Twin Cities, believe it or not, is actually right on target for February 19. Our average snow depth should be 4 inches. We've got 4 inches, thanks to those couple of recent snowfalls. But it's probably not going to last real long.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, so what are you tracking for the rest of today and the week ahead?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, major warm-up. We're up to 3 now in the Twin Cities, above 0, still pretty cold in parts of Western Minnesota, though-- 8 below in Fergus Falls, 2 below in Alexandria. Those are two places that probably won't get above 0 today. But Ely is a degree above, Duluth's 4 degrees above 0.
And those wind chills are anywhere from-- about 12 below 0 is the warmer spot, Twin Cities, to 28 below 0. And it's not going to be quite as cold today into tonight. We should see more single-digit highs. We're already above that right now.
Some snow showers in Northeastern Minnesota, could see up to an inch, Duluth, the North Shore, parts of the Arrowhead, and a little bit of increased cloud cover there. And those wind chills, again, mostly in the 10s and 20s here, below 0 for the rest of the afternoon.
NINA MOINI: All right. And then the big moment, the warm-up-- when is that coming, finally?
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we can call it a heat wave by relative standards. Back into the single digits, below 0 tonight. But that's some progress to around 3 below in the Twin Cities. It was 10 below 0, for reference, early this morning. So that's some progress.
10s tomorrow, the sunshine is back statewide. That'll feel pretty nice. But then close to 20 on Friday. And then it gets even warmer, 30s on Saturday. I think will be above freezing for most of the state. We will see a little more cloud cover over the weekend.
And then, by Sunday, we're talking low to mid-40s across the southern half of the state, 30s to the north. And I do think Southwestern Minnesota, at least, on Monday and Tuesday, will hit 50 or warmer. It's even possible--
NINA MOINI: Wow.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: --we do it in the Twin Cities. Now, that'll be a 70-degree swing from temperatures yesterday morning--
NINA MOINI: [LAUGHS]
SVEN SUNDGAARD: --from what we'll see on Tuesday. And then we will see a couple clipper systems come through, looks like maybe some snow showers for Northern Minnesota Sunday and Monday. But further south, Central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, we're looking at probably light rain on Monday. Some models give us about a tenth of an inch of just light rain Monday into Monday night.
So that 4 inches of snow cover we have, Nina, after several days in the 40s at least next week, in fact, all of next week looks above freezing. It's going to be gone. So it wasn't that long ago, two, three weeks ago we had bare ground. We are probably going to be back into that bare ground territory.
NINA MOINI: It's a roller coaster. Thanks for keeping us up to speed, Sven.
SVEN SUNDGAARD: Absolutely. Enjoy the last day or two of cold weather.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, hang in everybody. Thanks to MPR News Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.
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