Winter warm spell could bring 50-degree temperatures to Twin Cities
A lone skater braves the ice on Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis the morning.
Estelle Timar-Wilcox | MPR News 2024
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After a deep freeze, Minnesota is experiencing a January thaw. It feels almost like spring! MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joins MPR News host Nina Moini with a look at the forecast.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: After a deep freeze, we're entering what's called a January thaw. It's an official term. It's kind of feeling like spring, almost. And joining us to look at our forecast now is MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks for being here, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, it's my pleasure, Nina. I'm always happy to look at the weather maps.
NINA MOINI: Well, I'll take it. I know we've had a couple of these January thaws. I've heard this term from you. Tell me about it, and what we're getting now.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this is our second thaw. That doesn't happen in most years. And this really is kind of a record super-sized January thaw that we're in now, day number 4, Nina, of above-freezing temperatures in the Twin Cities. Sunday, we were 35, Monday 38. Yesterday, that high of 47, that tied the record that was 133 years old.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: So, warmest January 8th in-- or January 28th in 133 years. Today, we're more temperate, down to 36, but still above that thawing point. That high occurred after midnight.
And so far this month, we're running colder than average. But we were 4.4 degrees colder. Now we're 2.9 degrees colder.
And with what we have coming in later this week, we'll still finish colder than normal for January, but maybe only a degree or so. Nina, tomorrow, we're going to hit 50 degrees, I think, in the Twin Cities.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: The record is 48, set in 1989. So we could break another record tomorrow. And these temperatures, just for some perspective, are 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal. Our normal high in the Twin Cities is 28 this time of year-- or, I'm sorry, 24. So we're way up there, with those highs around 48 to 50 tomorrow.
NINA MOINI: Wow. What about through the weekend?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it looks like we're going to cool down a bit after tomorrow, 30s again on Friday. And then there's a chance of snow for the Twin Cities. I'm saying chance for the Twin Cities, better chance up in Central and Northern Minnesota.
There's a weak low coming in. Looks like it could generate some snow showers, maybe even a couple of rain showers, over the Twin Cities Saturday. So most of the models are saying maybe we just get a light coating of snow. A couple are saying an inch or two or three, especially in the Northeastern Twin Cities.
But 2 to 4 looks pretty likely north of the Twin Cities and up through Northern, Northeastern Minnesota. Nina, the North Shore looks like it could hit the jackpot, six inches plus through Sunday, so a significant snow potential for the North Shore. We're right on the edge, in the Twin Cities, of anything accumulating.
In Southwest Minnesota, I don't think you'll see much more than a few flurries. Nina, we've had 9.8 inches of snow so far this season in the Twin Cities. That's 20 inches below our normal.
NINA MOINI: Oh. Wow. [LAUGHS]
PAUL HUTTNER: So, yeah, we're 1 to 2 feet behind normal across Minnesota this year.
NINA MOINI: Wow. Looking ahead to February, I mean, I remember last February was sort of like it is right now-- no snow on the ground, at least here in the Twin Cities. What are you forecasting for February?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, it looks colder. I can give you that much. And especially next week, it looks like we'll have highs in the teens in the Twin Cities, and there is some light snow chances. But I'm not seeing anything major on the forecast models.
We need a good storm to wind up down around the Texas Panhandle and shoot north to about Milwaukee for us to get a really nice, heavy snow here in the Twin Cities, and the jet stream patterns just don't support that so far. So through the first week or so of February, maybe some light snow chances, but I don't see anything major. We've got a long way to go, and we're running out of time to catch up on snowfall this winter.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, Paul, what about La Niña? I always ask about La Niña. I thought we were having that this winter. Is that still going on?
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. It's a weak La Niña in the tropical Pacific. That means the ocean temperatures are a little colder than normal. That typically steers colder-than-normal air into Minnesota during the winter, and about 70% of La Niña winters are snowier in Minnesota.
This looks like one of those 30% where it's not going to be snowier. So it's not a slam dunk, but, yeah, the trends lean that way. It's just, it looks like we're in that other 30% of years this year.
NINA MOINI: Very interesting. Thank you. And tell us, before we let you go, Paul, What are you working on for Climate Cast this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we'll talk about the rise of geothermal energy in Minnesota and the US. It turns out that it's really efficient to heat our homes and buildings from heat deep beneath our feet, in the earth, underground. So we'll talk about that tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: Thanks so much, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That was MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, it's my pleasure, Nina. I'm always happy to look at the weather maps.
NINA MOINI: Well, I'll take it. I know we've had a couple of these January thaws. I've heard this term from you. Tell me about it, and what we're getting now.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this is our second thaw. That doesn't happen in most years. And this really is kind of a record super-sized January thaw that we're in now, day number 4, Nina, of above-freezing temperatures in the Twin Cities. Sunday, we were 35, Monday 38. Yesterday, that high of 47, that tied the record that was 133 years old.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: So, warmest January 8th in-- or January 28th in 133 years. Today, we're more temperate, down to 36, but still above that thawing point. That high occurred after midnight.
And so far this month, we're running colder than average. But we were 4.4 degrees colder. Now we're 2.9 degrees colder.
And with what we have coming in later this week, we'll still finish colder than normal for January, but maybe only a degree or so. Nina, tomorrow, we're going to hit 50 degrees, I think, in the Twin Cities.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: The record is 48, set in 1989. So we could break another record tomorrow. And these temperatures, just for some perspective, are 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal. Our normal high in the Twin Cities is 28 this time of year-- or, I'm sorry, 24. So we're way up there, with those highs around 48 to 50 tomorrow.
NINA MOINI: Wow. What about through the weekend?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it looks like we're going to cool down a bit after tomorrow, 30s again on Friday. And then there's a chance of snow for the Twin Cities. I'm saying chance for the Twin Cities, better chance up in Central and Northern Minnesota.
There's a weak low coming in. Looks like it could generate some snow showers, maybe even a couple of rain showers, over the Twin Cities Saturday. So most of the models are saying maybe we just get a light coating of snow. A couple are saying an inch or two or three, especially in the Northeastern Twin Cities.
But 2 to 4 looks pretty likely north of the Twin Cities and up through Northern, Northeastern Minnesota. Nina, the North Shore looks like it could hit the jackpot, six inches plus through Sunday, so a significant snow potential for the North Shore. We're right on the edge, in the Twin Cities, of anything accumulating.
In Southwest Minnesota, I don't think you'll see much more than a few flurries. Nina, we've had 9.8 inches of snow so far this season in the Twin Cities. That's 20 inches below our normal.
NINA MOINI: Oh. Wow. [LAUGHS]
PAUL HUTTNER: So, yeah, we're 1 to 2 feet behind normal across Minnesota this year.
NINA MOINI: Wow. Looking ahead to February, I mean, I remember last February was sort of like it is right now-- no snow on the ground, at least here in the Twin Cities. What are you forecasting for February?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, it looks colder. I can give you that much. And especially next week, it looks like we'll have highs in the teens in the Twin Cities, and there is some light snow chances. But I'm not seeing anything major on the forecast models.
We need a good storm to wind up down around the Texas Panhandle and shoot north to about Milwaukee for us to get a really nice, heavy snow here in the Twin Cities, and the jet stream patterns just don't support that so far. So through the first week or so of February, maybe some light snow chances, but I don't see anything major. We've got a long way to go, and we're running out of time to catch up on snowfall this winter.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, Paul, what about La Niña? I always ask about La Niña. I thought we were having that this winter. Is that still going on?
PAUL HUTTNER: We are. It's a weak La Niña in the tropical Pacific. That means the ocean temperatures are a little colder than normal. That typically steers colder-than-normal air into Minnesota during the winter, and about 70% of La Niña winters are snowier in Minnesota.
This looks like one of those 30% where it's not going to be snowier. So it's not a slam dunk, but, yeah, the trends lean that way. It's just, it looks like we're in that other 30% of years this year.
NINA MOINI: Very interesting. Thank you. And tell us, before we let you go, Paul, What are you working on for Climate Cast this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we'll talk about the rise of geothermal energy in Minnesota and the US. It turns out that it's really efficient to heat our homes and buildings from heat deep beneath our feet, in the earth, underground. So we'll talk about that tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: Thanks so much, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That was MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.
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