Your winter outlook with chief meteorologist Paul Huttner
Different forecasts predict a potential weekend snowfall.
NOAA via pivotal weather
Go Deeper.
Create an account or log in to save stories.
Like this?
Thanks for liking this story! We have added it to a list of your favorite stories.
It is the first of the month. And we’ve definitely turned the page on fall and are now looking at winter weather.
MPR News chief meteoroligist Paul Huttner takes a look back at our fall season and ahead to the rest of our winter season. He joined MPR News huest Host Nina Moini.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
Subscribe to the Minnesota Now podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
We attempt to make transcripts for Minnesota Now available the next business day after a broadcast. When ready they will appear here.
Turn Up Your Support
MPR News helps you turn down the noise and build shared understanding. Turn up your support for this public resource and keep trusted journalism accessible to all.
Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: I'm Nina Moini in for Cathy Wurzer. Well, it's the first day of November, and we have definitely turned the page on fall. Looks like we're looking at winter weather from here on out. Our chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joins us. Hi, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Nina. Good to be here. And I'm reminded today as I look at this first day of November, I'm really looking forward to more sunshine the next three days because we're going to get that. November is low stratus season, right? It's the cloudiest month of the year on average in Minnesota. So when the sun comes out the next few days, I think we're really going to appreciate that.
NINA MOINI: Oh, definitely. So tell me a little bit, Paul, about this first snowfall we had. I heard a lot of people saying, oh, it feels too early. But was it?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, it was earlier than average. The average first inch of snowfall in the Twin Cities is about November 18, so that's about two weeks earlier. But keep in mind last year, we had snow on October 14, so that was two weeks earlier. And it's interesting to note because I look back at some of the records. If we get an early snowfall in Minnesota in the Twin Cities, is there any correlation between the overall snowfall in the winter season?
And the answer really is no. It's really variable depending on when those first dates of snow are, so we can't really say there's going to be more or less snow because it came early. The best signal we're seeing right now is this El Nino that looks very strong tends to produce less than average snowfall in Minnesota, so we can keep an eye out for that.
NINA MOINI: Is that sort of in line with what you're seeing for November winter?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, it is. I mean, still, the outlooks strongly favor a milder than average winter in Minnesota and probably less snow. It looks like the November outlooks are saying equal chances. But as you go to the three month outlook, Nina, from NOAA, that pushes us into January, there is a very strong shift or very strong favorability toward milder than average temperatures.
So it's about 70% to 80% plus percent statistically, historically. So a pretty good chance-- not a slam dunk, but pretty close that we'll have a milder than average winter.
NINA MOINI: Oh my gosh. Well, that would be nice. What about just kind of taking it back to right now and then coming up this weekend, our first November weekend? What are you seeing?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. So we've got this little cold snap. It's interesting because we just finished six months in a row-- straight months of warmer than average temperatures in Minnesota in the Twin Cities. We averaged about three degrees warmer than average, Nina, from May right through October. That's more like a Omaha or Des Moines summer and fall that we just went through when you talk about climate averages.
And then this pattern flipped, and we got the cold air. We got the snow. It looks like we'll gradually moderate this week. We're going to see more sunshine, as I said, tomorrow, Friday into Saturday, highs in the 40s. Maybe even hit 50 in the Twin Cities by Friday afternoon. And then it looks like another potential rain or snow system Monday, leaning more toward rain. Today's models don't look as strong.
But hey, late next week, I'm seeing signs of a warm up, and we could be back into the 50s late next week into that first-- that second weekend, I guess it would be, of November, the 11th and the 12th. It looks like we might get some milder air back here just in about a week to 10 days or so.
NINA MOINI: Yeah. November always gives us a nice hodgepodge. And speaking of, I guess there's some intense storm Ciaran, and I had to look up how to pronounce that.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, me too.
NINA MOINI: Impacting Northwestern Europe. And I mean, what's driving that intense of a system at this time of year?
PAUL HUTTNER: So this is really interesting because this is one of these bomb cyclones that we call them. That's these storms that the pressure deepens rapidly over 24 hours, and this thing is heading for Great Britain and Western Europe right now, tonight and tomorrow. There is a 200 mile an hour jet stream ripping across the North Atlantic right now. That's up about 18,000, 20,000 feet in the air.
Nina, there are aircraft that they track that have been going 760 miles an hour at ground speed with like a 200 mile an hour tailwind, so that's really a quick flight over to Europe. But that's what's feeding this storm, and winds with the storm expected to be over 100 miles an hour. Gusts may be 120. 50 foot waves in the English Channel, and the pressure with this thing down maybe to 950 millibars.
Now, what that means is basically that's the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, so that can produce those winds of 100, 120 miles an hour, and it could be a record low pressure for the region. So meteorologists everywhere-- the Twitternets are lighting up with images of this storm. This could be very damaging as it heads into Western Europe.
NINA MOINI: Yeah. And so I mean, speaking of, do you think that is common for that area? Is this something you would have seen in the past?
PAUL HUTTNER: They do get occasionally these strong storms that race across the Atlantic and produce these high winds. This one, though, is kind of off the charts. It looks like it could set pressure records for Southern England, possibly France, and the Western parts of Europe. So yes, they do get these storms occasionally. This one just is super charged, Nina. It's going to be very interesting to watch this unfold over the next day or two.
NINA MOINI: Yeah. I'm also looking forward to your Climate Cast this week. What is that going to be about?
PAUL HUTTNER: So this is kind of interesting to me because I'm learning every week. I love it when I do this job. The climate change in Minnesota, the changes we're seeing, they're having an impact on vegetable farmers. I know a lot of people get CSAs, right? They get their vegetables every week or a couple of weeks.
Well, the longer growing seasons we're having are not necessarily good for vegetable farming in Minnesota because it helps the insects proliferate more, and the changing rainfall patterns that we're seeing from wet springs into drought immediately in summer-- that can create some real challenges.
So we're going to talk to a CSA farmer from Osceola, Wisconsin, about the changes they're seeing in their fields as climate shifts in our atmosphere. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast, All Things Considered between 3 and 6 PM.
NINA MOINI: I love Climate Cast, Paul, and I also love the Updraft blog. That's my go to for weather news. Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner, thank you so much for your time.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, I really appreciate that. Thank you so much, Nina.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Nina. Good to be here. And I'm reminded today as I look at this first day of November, I'm really looking forward to more sunshine the next three days because we're going to get that. November is low stratus season, right? It's the cloudiest month of the year on average in Minnesota. So when the sun comes out the next few days, I think we're really going to appreciate that.
NINA MOINI: Oh, definitely. So tell me a little bit, Paul, about this first snowfall we had. I heard a lot of people saying, oh, it feels too early. But was it?
PAUL HUTTNER: Well, it was earlier than average. The average first inch of snowfall in the Twin Cities is about November 18, so that's about two weeks earlier. But keep in mind last year, we had snow on October 14, so that was two weeks earlier. And it's interesting to note because I look back at some of the records. If we get an early snowfall in Minnesota in the Twin Cities, is there any correlation between the overall snowfall in the winter season?
And the answer really is no. It's really variable depending on when those first dates of snow are, so we can't really say there's going to be more or less snow because it came early. The best signal we're seeing right now is this El Nino that looks very strong tends to produce less than average snowfall in Minnesota, so we can keep an eye out for that.
NINA MOINI: Is that sort of in line with what you're seeing for November winter?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, it is. I mean, still, the outlooks strongly favor a milder than average winter in Minnesota and probably less snow. It looks like the November outlooks are saying equal chances. But as you go to the three month outlook, Nina, from NOAA, that pushes us into January, there is a very strong shift or very strong favorability toward milder than average temperatures.
So it's about 70% to 80% plus percent statistically, historically. So a pretty good chance-- not a slam dunk, but pretty close that we'll have a milder than average winter.
NINA MOINI: Oh my gosh. Well, that would be nice. What about just kind of taking it back to right now and then coming up this weekend, our first November weekend? What are you seeing?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. So we've got this little cold snap. It's interesting because we just finished six months in a row-- straight months of warmer than average temperatures in Minnesota in the Twin Cities. We averaged about three degrees warmer than average, Nina, from May right through October. That's more like a Omaha or Des Moines summer and fall that we just went through when you talk about climate averages.
And then this pattern flipped, and we got the cold air. We got the snow. It looks like we'll gradually moderate this week. We're going to see more sunshine, as I said, tomorrow, Friday into Saturday, highs in the 40s. Maybe even hit 50 in the Twin Cities by Friday afternoon. And then it looks like another potential rain or snow system Monday, leaning more toward rain. Today's models don't look as strong.
But hey, late next week, I'm seeing signs of a warm up, and we could be back into the 50s late next week into that first-- that second weekend, I guess it would be, of November, the 11th and the 12th. It looks like we might get some milder air back here just in about a week to 10 days or so.
NINA MOINI: Yeah. November always gives us a nice hodgepodge. And speaking of, I guess there's some intense storm Ciaran, and I had to look up how to pronounce that.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, me too.
NINA MOINI: Impacting Northwestern Europe. And I mean, what's driving that intense of a system at this time of year?
PAUL HUTTNER: So this is really interesting because this is one of these bomb cyclones that we call them. That's these storms that the pressure deepens rapidly over 24 hours, and this thing is heading for Great Britain and Western Europe right now, tonight and tomorrow. There is a 200 mile an hour jet stream ripping across the North Atlantic right now. That's up about 18,000, 20,000 feet in the air.
Nina, there are aircraft that they track that have been going 760 miles an hour at ground speed with like a 200 mile an hour tailwind, so that's really a quick flight over to Europe. But that's what's feeding this storm, and winds with the storm expected to be over 100 miles an hour. Gusts may be 120. 50 foot waves in the English Channel, and the pressure with this thing down maybe to 950 millibars.
Now, what that means is basically that's the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, so that can produce those winds of 100, 120 miles an hour, and it could be a record low pressure for the region. So meteorologists everywhere-- the Twitternets are lighting up with images of this storm. This could be very damaging as it heads into Western Europe.
NINA MOINI: Yeah. And so I mean, speaking of, do you think that is common for that area? Is this something you would have seen in the past?
PAUL HUTTNER: They do get occasionally these strong storms that race across the Atlantic and produce these high winds. This one, though, is kind of off the charts. It looks like it could set pressure records for Southern England, possibly France, and the Western parts of Europe. So yes, they do get these storms occasionally. This one just is super charged, Nina. It's going to be very interesting to watch this unfold over the next day or two.
NINA MOINI: Yeah. I'm also looking forward to your Climate Cast this week. What is that going to be about?
PAUL HUTTNER: So this is kind of interesting to me because I'm learning every week. I love it when I do this job. The climate change in Minnesota, the changes we're seeing, they're having an impact on vegetable farmers. I know a lot of people get CSAs, right? They get their vegetables every week or a couple of weeks.
Well, the longer growing seasons we're having are not necessarily good for vegetable farming in Minnesota because it helps the insects proliferate more, and the changing rainfall patterns that we're seeing from wet springs into drought immediately in summer-- that can create some real challenges.
So we're going to talk to a CSA farmer from Osceola, Wisconsin, about the changes they're seeing in their fields as climate shifts in our atmosphere. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast, All Things Considered between 3 and 6 PM.
NINA MOINI: I love Climate Cast, Paul, and I also love the Updraft blog. That's my go to for weather news. Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner, thank you so much for your time.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, I really appreciate that. Thank you so much, Nina.
Download transcript (PDF)
Transcription services provided by 3Play Media.