Category 2 Hurricane Francine will likely hit Louisiana's coast Wednesday

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season has been a bust so far. Predictions of an active season have not yet materialized, but there’s still time.

The average date of peak hurricane activity in the Atlantic is about Sept. 10. To use a football metaphor, we’re just approaching the end of the first half.

Francine is growing better organized and moving northward in the western Gulf of Mexico.

The storm is forecast to move onto the Louisiana coast Wednesday.

Francine will feed off warm Gulf of Mexico waters during her trek north. Right now, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are in the mid-80s.

There is the potential for rapid intensification on Tuesday. However, unfavorable wind shear near the Louisiana coast may tear at Francine near landfall.

Here’s more detail from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center discussion on Francine:

With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final 12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland.