Monday snow chance northern Minn.; Plowable snow will slow Tuesday commutes

Updated snow forecast

Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has tallied 4.6 inches of snow this November. Most of that snow has melted, except in shady areas. Our lawns and streets will receive a fresh batch of snow on Tuesday.

Monday snow potential to the north

There’s a chance of light snow in roughly the northern third of Minnesota Monday and into Monday night. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 3 a.m. Monday to 8 p.m. Monday:

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Simulated radar from 3 a.m. Monday to 8 p.m. Monday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Check forecast updates on Monday.

Plowable snow in many areas Tuesday and Tuesday night

A low pressure system is expected to spread a swath of snow across southern Minnesota, the Twin Cities metro area, plus parts of central and northeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night.

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 11 p.m. Monday to 11 p.m. Tuesday:

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Simulated radar from 11 p.m. Monday to 11 p.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Plowable snow is expected in many areas:

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Plowable snow expected Tuesday into Tuesday night
National Weather Service

Some spots could see 4 inches or more of snow:

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Potential for 4 inches or more of snow Tuesday through Tuesday night
National Weather Service

The storm track could change and forecast snow totals may need to be adjusted, but here is the latest NWS snow forecast for Tuesday through Tuesday night:

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Snow forecast Tuesday through Tuesday night
National Weather Service

Notice that the northwestern edge of the Twin Cities metro area may see less than half as much snow as the southeastern edge of the metro area. One scenario places 1 to 2 inches in the far northwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area and 3 to 5 inches in the far southeastern portion of the metro.

Chisago County and Pine County of east-central Minnesota, plus much of northwestern Wisconsin, have been placed in a winter storm watch Tuesday and Tuesday night:

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Winter storm watch for Chisago and Pine Counties and NW Wisconsin starts Tuesday
National Weather Service

Here are details of the winter storm watch in Chisago County and points to the east:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 149 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 MNZ053-WIZ014>016-280600- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0003.221129T1200Z-221130T1200Z/ Chisago-Polk-Barron-Rusk- Including the cities of Center City, Osceola, Rice Lake, and Ladysmith 149 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Chisago County. In Wisconsin, Polk, Barron and Rusk Counties. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

As new forecast model info arrives Sunday night and early Monday, the NWS may add more counties to the winter storm watch.

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport reported a high of 42 degrees on Sunday. That’s 6 degrees warmer than the average Twin Cities high temperature for this date.

The metro area and much of southern Minnesota will have highs in the 40s on Monday, with 30s to the north:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Wind gusts over 20 mph are possible Monday afternoon.

Tuesday highs will retreat to the 20s in western and northern Minnesota, with 30s elsewhere in Minnesota. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 30s on Tuesday, followed by lower 20s Wednesday, around 30 Thursday and upper 30s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.