Steamy Monday; strong thunderstorms mainly north later

Dangerous Monday heat alerts
Dangerous Monday heat alerts
National Weather Service

Conditions remained very warm and muggy overnight. The Twin Cities temperature dipped only into the upper 70s, well above the record high minimum temperature record for the day of 75.

Look for Monday to be dangerously hot and humid statewide. Various excessive heat warnings and heat advisories have been posted to include all parts of Minnesota and about the northern half of Wisconsin. The excessive heat warning for the most-dangerous conditions covers basically the greater Twin Cities area, central Minnesota, the Minnesota River Valley and part of northwestern Minnesota into Monday night. Other areas have a heat advisory.

Dangerous Monday heat alerts
Dangerous Monday heat alerts
National Weather Service

Most of Minnesota will have high temperatures in the 90s Monday afternoon with plenty of humidity.

The Twin Cities will have a high temperature near 99 with dew points near 70. The heat index will climb to about 105. The record high actual temperature for today is 98 (1933).

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

Thunderstorm chances

A cold front will kick off scattered thunderstorms beginning in west central and northwestern Minnesota Monday afternoon. Storms will grow as they spread across northern and then central Minnesota. Some storms are likely to become severe Monday evening.

More storms are likely to spread from South Dakota into Minnesota around midnight. Some of these storms could be strong when/if they reach the Twin Cities later in the night. The updated convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the slight risk area (level 2 of 5) for about the northwestern half of the state and now includes the Twin Cities in the marginal risk (level 1) area.

Severe weather outlook for Monday-Monday night
Severe weather outlook for Monday-Monday night
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Some relief on Tuesday

The cold front will drag less sultry conditions into the state from the northwest for Tuesday.

Wednesday looks like the most pleasant day of the week before we warm again Thursday and Friday.

Maybe rain later in the week

Chances of scattered showers will pop up late on Thursday and then again Friday and Saturday.

Needed rain

If you think we have been drying out, you are correct. Soil moisture as measured in about the top four inches of topsoil are dry in most of Minnesota (yellow/orange/red) but wet in mainly the northwest (greens).

Soil moisture percentage June 20, 2022
Soil moisture percentage June 20, 2022
National Weather Service

Rain likely to fall this week will help but not solve the dryness problem. Amounts forecast from June 20-27 are generally around or less than a half inch for much of the southern half of Minnesota, but almost nothing in the southeast corner. Northern parts will be wetter with some areas possibly getting more than one inch (dark green).

Rainfall forecast June 20-27
Forecast rainfall June 20-27
National Weather Service